2/13/25 Roundup: The Rise of Outside Money
Onramp Weekly Roundup
Written By Brian Cubellis
Before we get started…
Earlier this week, we published…
Multi-Institution Custody Explained: Key Generation, Key Management & the Path to Unparalleled Bitcoin Security
…a seminal report that delves into the intricacies of safeguarding bitcoin wealth through multi-institution custody. In this deep dive, we uncover how private keys are generated, sharded, secured, and coordinated across multiple independent entities, eliminating any single point of failure for end clients. Download here…
And now, for the weekly roundup…
The Rise of Outside Money
It’s rare for a mainstream financial analyst to so accurately predict the kind of “regime shift” we’re seeing today, but Zoltan Pozsar—a former Credit Suisse macro economist—did just that in his 2022 musings on what he called Bretton Woods III.
Pozsar’s commentary highlighted the transition from a world dominated by “inside money” (i.e., sovereign debt and fiat-linked assets) toward more resilient, commodity-linked “outside money.” While Pozsar is not a self-professed bitcoiner, his insights map remarkably well to bitcoin’s role as an alternative monetary asset in a changing global order.
Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III & Today’s Geopolitical Realities
Back in March 2022, Pozsar forecast a new paradigm in which commodity-based currencies in the East weaken the Eurodollar system and contribute to inflationary pressures in the West. He observed:
“We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III… Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money, and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money.”
Fast-forward to 2025, and the evidence is mounting that foreign nations are rethinking their dependence on U.S. Treasuries. Facing geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices, countries are diversifying into non-sovereign monetary alternatives such as gold—and increasingly, bitcoin.
Pozsar’s prediction about “outside money” resonates: the more unstable the global financial system becomes, the greater the appeal of a currency that isn’t dependent on a single government’s solvency or foreign-policy maneuvers.
Gold Squeezes & Paper Promises
Over the past few weeks, we’ve watched gold’s supply chain fray under intense demand for physical settlement—elevating questions Pozsar himself asked about custodial risk, paper markets, and margin calls. He noted in 2022 that commodity financialization “gets scary” in a crisis, when paper derivatives no longer suffice, and everyone suddenly wants the actual metal. We see the echoes of this concern today as gold’s price hits all-time highs yet physical deliveries struggle.
It’s precisely this breakdown in trust—whether in central bank reserves or custodial gold—that leads nations and investors to seek alternatives. Bitcoin, as a purely digital bearer asset, flips the script: its final settlement is nearly instant, and its supply is verifiable on-chain, avoiding the pitfalls of fractional paper claims.
Oil, Gold, & Shifting Reserves: Pozsar’s Warnings
In December 2022, Pozsar warned that the real threat in funding markets wasn’t purely quantitative tightening but rather geopolitics—like Russia’s response to oil price caps and potential shifts away from U.S. dollar assets. He wrote:
“This crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971… When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker… [and] bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this.”
Here in 2025, nations have in fact been offloading Treasuries at record rates, channeling capital into commodities and alternative assets. Although some are hedging with gold, the move toward bitcoin as digital “outside money” has been faster than most expected, largely thanks to its predictable monetary policy and resistance to confiscation or sanctions.
Bitcoin’s Emergence as “Outside Money”
Pozsar’s assessment that bitcoin could benefit from a global pivot away from “inside money” wasn’t merely theoretical. Bitcoin’s core features—verifiable scarcity, custodial optionality, credible neutrality, and near-instant final settlement—line up squarely with the requirements of a decentralized monetary asset, particularly in an era of mounting sovereign debt and heightened geopolitical friction. Today, institutions no longer view bitcoin as a fringe bet but increasingly as a prudent hedge against the very disruptions Pozsar predicted.
What It Means for Allocators
Pozsar’s commentary underscores the importance of positioning bitcoin as a foundational holding in an era of macro volatility. The old Bretton Woods framework is straining: central banks in emerging markets look to hard assets and avoid U.S. Treasuries, while G7 policies remain unpredictable. Whether it’s gold’s recent physical settlement woes or rising commodity-based alliances, one thing is clear: the world is shifting from trust in inside money to verification through outside money.
Allocators seeking resiliency are wise to consider bitcoin’s role in this new order—especially with robust custody solutions that mitigate counterparty risk. As Pozsar suggested, the system is undergoing a seismic change, and assets like bitcoin stand to thrive in a marketplace that increasingly prioritizes scarcity, neutrality, and settlement finality.
Chart of the Week
“We analyzed 20 state-level Bitcoin reserve bills. If enacted, they could drive $23 billion in buying, or 247k BTC. This sum is independent of any pension fund allocations, likely to rise if legislators move forward.”
Quote of the Week
“The Bank of England is currently struggling to meet demand for deliveries of over 8,000 gold bars due to ‘logistical challenges’ and because ‘it’s really heavy,’ causing delays that will likely last months. Bitcoin, on the other hand, could have met the entirety of those ~$9.2 billion of withdrawals in just under ten minutes and for a tiny fraction of the cost.”
Podcasts of the Week
Macro Noise, (Micro)Strategy, Fiscal Dominance, & Bitcoin Banks
In this episode of The Last Trade, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Brian Cubellis, & Tim Kotzman discuss macro noise, fiscal dominance, (Micro)Strategy, inheritance planning, bitcoin banks & more!
The Banks Are Coming: Why Building Custodial Trust is Imperative
In this episode of Final Settlement, hosts Brian Cubellis, Michael Tanguma, & Liam Nelson are joined by Mitch Kochman, Chief Revenue Officer at Onramp, to discuss deals of the week, SAB repeal & banks entering bitcoin, M&A activity, key custodial considerations, bitcoin financial services & more!
Closing Note
Onramp provides bitcoin financial services built on multi-institution custody. To learn more about our products for individuals and institutions, schedule a consultation to chat with us about your situation and needs.
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Until next week,
Brian Cubellis