8/17/23 Roundup
Hi all,
This is Dylan LeClair, presenting this week’s Onramp Weekly Roundup.
Before we get started… If you’re a HNWI or Institution looking for the best way to get exposure to bitcoin, Onramp Bitcoin could be the right fit for you – schedule a chat with us to discuss your situation & needs.
And now, here’s the weekly roundup…
Global Trade Indicators: Mixed Signals
Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker reveals a complex picture with six of 10 global trade indicators below normal. While North American ports show signs of normalization, a slump in European and Asian exports and sharp reversals in Asia create uncertainty. Factors such as China’s property crisis and a cautious outlook from major shipping companies further muddy the waters. The result is a landscape marked by uncertainty and divergence, reflecting a delay in global demand recovery.
Fed's GDP Signals Explosive Q3 Growth
The U.S. economy currently is the bright spot in a world of uncertainty, with Atlanta Fed’s GDNow tracker estimating 5.8% real GDP growth in Q3 2023, driven by robust personal consumption and private investment. This strong domestic performance contrasts with the mixed signals from global trade, underscoring a disconnect between U.S. economic resilience and broader global trade hesitations., at least for now…
Fed Debate on Rates Shifts from "How High" to "How Long"
The recent FOMC minutes signal a subtle but significant shift in policy debate, with an emphasis on assessing the duration of restrictive monetary policy. The 25bp hike and characterization of the economy’s “moderate” growth were paired with hawkish sentiments. Participants highlighted “significant upside risks to inflation” that might require further tightening, but also acknowledged downside risks, including a potential sharper economic slowdown. Regarding economic activity, this quote really stuck out, especially in contrast to the recent GDPNow print from the Atlanta Fed,
“Participants continued to view a period of below-trend growth in real GDP and some softening in labor market conditions as needed to bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and reduce inflation pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time”
Central Planning Hubris
These multifaceted signals about global trade, U.S. economic growth, and Fed comments illuminate the intricacies and contradictions of the global economic landscape. The contrasting narratives and data show that no one fully comprehends the vast complexities of a global economy. To believe that such a dynamic and interconnected system can be effectively steered by an interest rate lever, determined within a small boardroom, is a profound overconfidence. The contrast between a centrally controlled, closed source monetary system, arbitrary dictated by a group of select insiders, and an open source monetary network with programmatic supply issuance couldn’t be clearer.
The fact that the inherent superiority of the latter system isn’t widely understood is a clear sign that is still in fact early, while also signaling that plenty more education is needed.
Podcast of the Week
E012: Founder Wolves vs Domesticated Animals with Cam Doody
This week, Cam Doody of Brickyard VC joins hosts Marty Bent, Jesse Myers, and Michael Tanguma. The conversation ranges from Cam’s experience as a VC turned Bitcoiner, the overarching philosophy of Proof-of-Work that guides his focus in VC and brought him to Bitcoin, and his views on how strong company founders have a little wild animal in them.
Closing Note
Wrapping up this week’s digest, Onramp Bitcoin invites you to explore our offerings on our website.
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If Onramp’s offerings align with your needs, or those of someone you know, feel free to schedule a chat with us here.
Onward and Upward,
Dylan LeClair