One story, two expressions

Recognition of "The Debasement Trade” is accelerating for a simple reason: deficits mount, debt stacks higher, and accommodative policy suppresses real yields. When the measuring stick itself drifts, savers naturally reach for assets whose issuance is constrained by nature or code (gold or bitcoin). That impulse is structural rather than seasonal, which is why the conversation keeps widening.

Investors who expect ongoing dilution look for a yardstick that will not change on them, and that search shows up across both gold and bitcoin. The paths for these two assets can look different and price leadership may oscillate, but the underlying trajectory is consistent. People are moving savings toward credible scarcity.

Old idea, growing audience

None of this is new. Gold advocates have argued the point for decades, and bitcoiners have made the same case since the genesis block. What is new is the audience.

More allocators are recognizing the denominator problem, where nominal gains can flatter while real purchasing power slips. As that realization spreads, the “trade” looks less like a trade and more like a savings decision that endures across cycles.

"The Debasement Trade" since COVID:

In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%. In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%. In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%. — Luke Groman on X

One engine, two expressions

Gold and bitcoin answer the same question: how do you store work across time without policy risk eroding it. Gold brings depth, broad ownership, and a long settlement record, which is why it often behaves as the sturdier expression of the thesis. Bitcoin is smaller, more reflexive, and more sensitive to liquidity and nominal balance growth, which is why it tends to move with greater amplitude when conditions ease or liquidity expands.

Because both assets respond to the same driver but live in markets with very different size and depth, leadership naturally hands off as conditions change. The tempo may differ, but the underlying theses are structurally aligned.

What sound money exposure means

Choosing to own neither gold nor bitcoin presumes a credible shift to fiscal restraint and tighter money for the long haul, a scenario with minuscule political odds. Choosing to own at least one, or some combination of both, is a decision to anchor savings in credible scarcity and align with the core monetary reality that has persisted for decades.

You do not need a perfect forecast of next quarter’s tape to benefit from a long arc that is driven by issuance constraints and the demand for purchasing-power defense.

Robin Seyr on X

Why bitcoin is truly "risk-off"

If “risk-off” means protection from monetary dilution rather than simply lower day-to-day volatility, then bitcoin is straightforward: a fixed, transparent issuance schedule and a terminal supply of 21 million, enforced by open rules rather than committee.

That clarity makes it a savings instrument as opposed to a speculation vehicle. Gold complements this with geological scarcity and centuries of settlement credibility, giving savers a digital path to finality and an analog path to permanence.

Direct ownership over exposure

Treat this posture like savings, not a trading chip. Hold bitcoin in structures that preserve direct ownership, keep coins out of omnibus pools, and reduce single-point-of-failure risk. Segregated, client-titled addresses provide on-chain transparency. A multi-signature, multi-institution quorum distributes control so no single party can act alone.

Operational controls, including dual approvals, time delays, and strong identity checks, reduce human-layer risk. Per-incident vault insurance backed by Lloyd’s of London adds a final layer so operational resilience matches the monetary thesis.

Bottom line

The driver is structural and persistent, which is why prices keep pointing in the same direction even as leadership may alternate.

Gold and bitcoin remain two clear expressions of the Sound Money Renaissance, and the practical question for savers is not whether to time each handoff perfectly, but whether their long-term savings have any anchor in credible scarcity at all.

Chart of the Week

What if stock market gains were measured in gold instead of dollars? As John Authers notes, “Denominate U.S. stocks in gold rather than dollars, and they’ve been in decline since the dot-com bubble burst 25 years ago. Stocks elsewhere have done even worse.”

— Mohamed A. El-Erian

Quote of the Week

"Just finished a small dinner with Secretary Bessent and Chairman Scott. We talked about the Market Structure bill. We talked about the economy. We talked about the 11 finalists for the Chair of the Fed, and we talked about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The US holds about $17B of Bitcoin and ‘will not sell’ and plan to continue to accumulate."

— Matthew Schultz, CEO of CleanSpark

Podcasts of the Week

Wall Street Joins the Sound Money Renaissance

In this episode of The Last Trade, hosts Brian Cubellis, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, & Cam Stromme discuss gold at ~$4K & BTC ATHs, big money embracing hard money, the denominator shift (USD → gold & BTC), ETFs for access; MIC for ownership, the sovereign shuffle, & more!

Debasement Endgame: Bitcoin ATHs, Gold Near $4K, & Bonds Bleeding

In this episode of Final Settlement, hosts Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, & Brian Cubellis break down benchmarking in BTC & gold, TradFi bends & IBIT dominates, stablecoin surge & duopoly cracks, direct ownership > proxy wrappers, AI land grab, key deals & more!

The Great Wealth Divide: Why Bitcoin & Gold Are Replacing Bonds

In this episode of The Last Trade, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis are joined by Tyler Neville to discuss wartime finance: bailouts by acronym, 60/40 is over—the SoV shift, saving vs speculating amid debasement, gold & BTC take reserve share, direct ownership > wrappers & ETFs & more!

Closing Note

Onramp provides bitcoin financial services built on multi-institution custody. To learn more about our products for individuals and institutions, schedule a consultation to chat with us about your situation and needs.

Until next week,

Brian Cubellis