Onramp Institutional Quarterly Update | Q4 2025

In this quarter's update, Glenn Cameron, Head of Onramp Institutional, examines the relationship between bitcoin's price cycles and macro liquidity conditions.

The core thesis: bitcoin's major cycle phases align more closely with global liquidity regimes than with the four-year halving schedule.

The report introduces the "Macro Trio" framework built around three variables that together define bitcoin's operating environment: global M2 money supply, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and real interest rates.

Key findings:

• During expanding liquidity regimes, bitcoin has delivered a median 12-month return of 135% with only a 9% probability of negative outcome
• During contracting regimes, median returns drop to 27% with a 45% probability of loss
• Bitcoin responds to liquidity shifts with a lag of 6 to 24 months, explaining apparent short-term divergences from macro conditions
• The halving remains a structural tailwind and narrative catalyst, but has historically been unreliable as a timing signal

The report includes historical regime analysis, a breakdown of transmission mechanisms, and a practical tool called the Macro Trio Dashboard for quarterly monitoring.

[Read the Full Report]