Bitcoin sentiment has cratered after a 30% drawdown, but the thesis hasn’t changed. Cycles are dead, liquidity is turning, and gold’s strength signals what’s next for BTC. Fundamentals are stronger than ever as custody, rails, and institutional demand quietly build beneath the noise.

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🎙️ About This Episode

Sentiment ≠ fundamentals. The team dissects the drawdown (short-term holder capitulation, cycle anchoring), the macro pivot (QT end, rate-cut path, fiscal dominance), gold’s 2025 lead, BTC in gold terms, and why better rails/custody unlock new cohorts. They also cover AI bubble optics, prediction-market mania, muni BTC pilots, IMF data on fiat depreciation since 1971, and fresh institutional signals (M&A, endowment flows).

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset...in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 – Price check and sentiment reset 02:54 – Liquidity over cycles: the real driver 05:18 – Capitulation data and new buyer cohorts 12:36 – Gold leads; BTC in XAU terms 16:52 – Market structure: not a bull yet 24:44 – AI risk: concentration and circular ROI 31:47 – Portfolio mix: gold hedge, improving rails 34:35 – Block rails: pay dollars, settle in bitcoin 39:50 – Levered “treasury companies” vs real adoption 49:35 – Bitcoin muni pilots; IMF on fiat decay 52:56 – Institutional signals: flows and M&A 54:52 – Prediction markets and casino-ified risk 01:05:09 – Outlook: liquidity setup and path forward

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