Should I Buy Bitcoin Now? An Honest Framework for Making the Decision
Jackson Mikalic | Head of Business Development
May 26, 2025
Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?
An Honest Framework for Making the Decision Yourself
Key Takeaways:
Nobody can consistently time the Bitcoin market. Not analysts, not influencers, not algorithms. If someone tells you they know the perfect time to buy, they are selling something.
The better question is not "should I buy now" but "does Bitcoin belong in my financial plan at all, and if so, how do I enter responsibly?"
Dollar-cost averaging (buying a fixed amount at regular intervals) has historically outperformed attempts to time the market for most investors.
How you hold your Bitcoin matters as much as when you buy it. Custody, security, and inheritance planning become critical as your position grows.
This article does not tell you what to do. It gives you a framework for deciding for yourself.
The Question Everyone Asks
"Should I buy Bitcoin now?" is one of the most searched questions in personal finance. It spikes when Bitcoin is surging ("Am I too late?") and it spikes when Bitcoin is falling ("Is this the bottom?"). The question never goes away because the anxiety behind it never goes away.
And the anxiety is understandable. Bitcoin is volatile. It has dropped 50% or more multiple times in its history. It has also delivered returns that no other asset class has matched over any meaningful time horizon. That combination of extreme upside and gut-wrenching drawdowns makes the timing question feel urgent.
But here is the honest answer: nobody knows the right time to buy Bitcoin. Not the person on social media posting charts. Not the hedge fund manager on cable news. Not the algorithm promising to call the bottom.
What we can do is give you a framework for thinking through the decision. Not a recommendation. A framework. Because the answer depends on your financial situation, your time horizon, your risk tolerance, and your understanding of what Bitcoin actually is.
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Investors have been trying to time markets for as long as markets have existed. And the data on it is clear: the vast majority of people who try to time markets underperform those who simply invest consistently over time.
Bitcoin amplifies this dynamic because its volatility is more extreme than traditional assets. Consider some real history:
In January 2015, Bitcoin was trading around $200. Twelve months later it was still around $400. By late 2017, it had reached nearly $20,000.
In December 2018, Bitcoin had fallen from $20,000 to $3,200. Many declared it dead. Within three years, it would reach $69,000.
In November 2022, Bitcoin sat near $16,000 after the collapse of FTX. The narrative was that crypto was finished. Less than two years later, it hit a new all-time high above $126,000.
In each of these cases, the people who tried to wait for the "perfect" entry point often missed the bulk of the recovery. The rebounds tend to happen fast, and they tend to start when sentiment is at its worst.
This is not unique to Bitcoin. Research on the S&P 500 has shown that missing just the 10 best trading days in a 20-year period can cut your total return by more than half. The pattern holds for Bitcoin, often even more dramatically.
The lesson is not that you should buy blindly. The lesson is that waiting for certainty is itself a strategy, and historically, it has been a poor one.
The Better Question: Does Bitcoin Belong in Your Financial Plan?
Before asking "should I buy now," it is worth stepping back and asking a more foundational question: do you understand what Bitcoin is, and does it make sense for your situation?
If you are considering Bitcoin purely because the price went up recently and you do not want to miss out, that is not a strong foundation for a decision. Fear of missing out is an emotion, not a strategy.
If, on the other hand, you have spent time understanding why Bitcoin has value, and you have a clear sense of how it fits into your broader financial picture, then the timing question becomes much less stressful.
Here are the questions worth answering honestly before making any purchase:
Do You Understand What You Are Buying?
Bitcoin is not a company. It does not generate revenue or pay dividends. Its value comes from its properties as a monetary network: fixed supply (only 21 million will ever exist), decentralization (no single entity controls it), and censorship resistance (no government can freeze or confiscate it without controlling your keys).
These properties make Bitcoin fundamentally different from stocks, bonds, and real estate. Understanding this is important because it changes how you should think about price movements. When a stock drops 40%, it might mean the company is failing. When Bitcoin drops 40%, it usually means the market is going through one of its historically normal corrections.
If you do not yet have a clear understanding of why Bitcoin has value, that is not a reason to avoid it forever. It is a reason to learn before you invest significantly. The worst position to be in is owning an asset you do not understand during a 50% drawdown, because you will not have the conviction to hold through it.
What Is Your Time Horizon?
Bitcoin has never had a negative return over any four-year holding period in its history. That does not guarantee it never will. But it suggests that Bitcoin, like most volatile assets, rewards patience.
If you are investing money you might need in six months, Bitcoin is probably not the right place for it. Its short-term price movements are unpredictable and can be severe.
If you are thinking in terms of five, ten, or twenty years, the entry price matters much less than the decision to enter at all. Someone who bought Bitcoin at the absolute peak of the 2017 cycle ($20,000) and simply held through the carnage of 2018 was sitting on a 6x return by 2024.
Can You Afford to Be Wrong?
This is the question most Bitcoin content avoids, and it is the most important one.
No one should invest money in Bitcoin that they cannot afford to lose entirely. Not because Bitcoin is likely to go to zero (the probability decreases with every cycle), but because building a position you can hold through volatility requires that it not threaten your financial stability.
A common guideline is to allocate no more than you could lose without it changing your lifestyle. For some people, that is 1% of their portfolio. For others, it is 20%. There is no universal right answer. The right allocation is the one you can hold through a 50% drawdown without panic selling.
Are You Prepared for the Volatility?
Bitcoin is not a savings account. It does not move in a straight line. A 20-30% drawdown in Bitcoin is not unusual, and drawdowns of 50% or more have occurred in nearly every market cycle.
If you invest $10,000 in Bitcoin today, you should be prepared to see it drop to $5,000 before it goes to $30,000. If that sequence of events would cause you to sell at $5,000, then either your position is too large or your understanding of Bitcoin's historical behavior needs more development.
The investors who do well with Bitcoin over time are not the ones who buy at the bottom. They are the ones who buy at a price they are comfortable with, in an amount they can stomach losing, and hold through the cycles.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: The Strategy That Removes the Timing Problem
If you have decided that Bitcoin belongs in your financial plan but you are not sure when to enter, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the strategy that removes the timing decision entirely.
DCA means investing a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals, regardless of what the price is doing. Instead of trying to buy $10,000 worth of Bitcoin at the "right" time, you buy $500 worth every two weeks for 10 months.
The math behind DCA is straightforward: when prices are high, your fixed amount buys less Bitcoin. When prices are low, it buys more. Over time, this produces an average cost basis that smooths out volatility.
Here is why this matters psychologically: DCA eliminates the regret of bad timing. You never have to wonder whether you bought at the top because you are always buying. And the weeks where the price drops are actually working in your favor, lowering your average cost.
DCA is not the optimal strategy in a market that only goes up. In that case, lump-sum investing wins because you get full exposure immediately. But Bitcoin does not only go up. It goes up, crashes, consolidates, and goes up again. In that environment, DCA has historically been an excellent approach for most investors.
What the Smart Money Is Actually Doing
It is worth noting what institutional investors, the ones managing billions of dollars for pension funds, endowments, and family offices, are actually doing with Bitcoin.
They are not trying to time the market.
The institutional approach to Bitcoin is almost universally methodical: determine an allocation target (typically 1-5% of a portfolio), build the position gradually over time, and focus on custody and security rather than entry price.
This is not because institutions are unsophisticated. It is because they have learned, over decades of managing money across every asset class, that entry timing matters far less than position sizing, discipline, and security.
The biggest institutional mistake is not buying too high. It is buying and then losing access to the asset through poor custody, failed security practices, or inadequate inheritance planning. This is why institutions spend more time on how they hold Bitcoin than on when they buy it.
That same principle applies to individual investors, but it is rarely discussed in the "should I buy now" content you will find online.
The Part No One Talks About: How You Hold Bitcoin Matters as Much as When You Buy It
Most articles about buying Bitcoin focus entirely on timing and price. Almost none of them address what happens after you buy.
And yet, for anyone who ends up holding a meaningful amount, how you secure your Bitcoin becomes the more important question. History is full of people who bought Bitcoin at excellent prices and then lost it:
Exchange collapses (Mt. Gox, FTX, Celsius) wiped out billions in customer deposits.
Individuals who self-custodied lost access through forgotten seed phrases, hardware failures, or physical theft.
Estates were unable to access Bitcoin after the holder passed away because there was no inheritance plan in place.
The uncomfortable truth is that buying Bitcoin is the easy part. Securing it for the long term, across decades, through life changes, across generations, is the hard part.
If you are buying a small amount to learn and get exposure, keeping it on a reputable exchange is reasonable as a starting point. But as your position grows, the question of custody becomes increasingly important.
There is a spectrum of custody options:
Exchange custody: The simplest option. A platform holds your keys for you. Convenient, but you are trusting a single institution with your wealth. If they get hacked, go insolvent, or freeze withdrawals, you have limited recourse.
Self-custody: You hold your own keys using a hardware wallet. Maximum sovereignty, but you become the single point of failure. Lose your seed phrase, and your Bitcoin is gone forever. For significant holdings, the operational burden and inheritance complexity are real challenges.
Multi-institution custody: A model that distributes key management across multiple independent institutions, so no single entity (including you) is a single point of failure. This approach is designed for holders who want institutional-grade security without the personal operational burden of self-custody.
The right custody approach depends on the size of your holdings, your technical comfort, and how long you plan to hold. But the key point is this: the decision of how to hold your Bitcoin deserves at least as much thought as the decision of when to buy it.
When Buying Bitcoin Might Not Be Right for You
Honest Bitcoin content should acknowledge that buying is not always the right call. Here are some situations where holding off might make more sense:
You have high-interest debt (especially credit card debt). Paying off 20%+ APR debt is a guaranteed return that Bitcoin cannot promise.
You do not have an emergency fund. Three to six months of expenses in liquid savings should come before any investment in volatile assets.
You are investing money you will need in the short term. Rent, tuition, or other near-term obligations should not be at risk from Bitcoin's volatility.
You do not understand what you are buying. There is no rush. Bitcoin's fixed supply means it is not going anywhere. Take the time to learn before you invest significantly.
You are making the decision based on someone else's enthusiasm rather than your own research. Social pressure is not an investment thesis.
None of these mean Bitcoin is a bad investment. They mean the timing is not right for your specific situation. And that is a perfectly reasonable conclusion.
A Practical Framework for Getting Started
If you have worked through the questions above and decided that Bitcoin makes sense for you, here is a practical approach that removes most of the stress from the timing decision:
Start small. Buy an amount that you would not notice losing. This lets you learn the mechanics of buying, holding, and tracking Bitcoin without any meaningful risk. There is no minimum threshold for a good investment.
Set up a recurring buy. Pick a fixed amount and a regular schedule (weekly, biweekly, or monthly). Automate it if your platform allows. This removes the emotional component entirely.
Learn as you go. As you hold Bitcoin and watch it move, your understanding will deepen naturally. Use that time to learn about custody, security, and long-term planning.
Increase your allocation as your conviction grows. If after six months of consistent buying and learning you feel more confident, you can increase your recurring amount. If you feel less confident, you can decrease it or stop. The point is that you are making decisions from a position of knowledge rather than anxiety.
Think about custody early. Do not wait until you have a significant position to think about how you are securing it. The right time to plan is before you need to.
Final Thoughts
"Should I buy Bitcoin now" is really two questions disguised as one.
The first question is whether Bitcoin belongs in your financial plan at all. That is a question only you can answer, and it requires understanding what Bitcoin is, why it has value, and how much risk you can tolerate.
The second question is about timing, and the honest answer is that nobody knows. The best entry point is always obvious in hindsight and impossible to identify in real time. What history shows is that for investors with a long time horizon, the decision to buy consistently mattered far more than the specific price they paid.
If you decide Bitcoin belongs in your plan, start small, stay consistent, and focus on the things you can control: how much you invest, how regularly you invest, and how securely you hold what you buy.
Those are better questions than "should I buy now." And they are the ones that actually determine your outcome.
If you are thinking about building a meaningful Bitcoin position and want to understand how custody, security, and inheritance planning fit into the picture, we are happy to walk you through it. Schedule a consultation to learn how Onramp can help you hold Bitcoin for the long term.
