4/24/26 Roundup: The Real Safe Haven

Operation Epic Fury is eight weeks old. Oil is up forty percent, gold is down, bonds are down, stocks are down, and bitcoin is the only major asset outside of the one directly tied to the conflict that has produced a positive return.

Below we unpack why this pattern has now repeated across seven consecutive macro shocks, why the variables that can impair a bitcoin position are shrinking while the variables impairing every other asset are multiplying, and what it means that a four-star admiral just described bitcoin as "a reality" in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Followed by our standard Chart, Quote, and Podcasts of the Week.

The Real Safe Haven

Operation Epic Fury began on February 28th. What has happened in the eight weeks since is the exact stress scenario that asset allocation frameworks are built around, and most of those frameworks have failed it in real time.

Oil is up roughly forty percent, for the obvious reason that the conflict has direct implications for oil. Most stocks are flat to down a few percent. Gold, which spent most of 2025 being heralded as the safe-haven trade of the decade, is actually lower since the bombs started falling. Bonds, which are supposed to be the portfolio's shock absorber when equities sell off, have added to the damage rather than offset it.

The only major asset that has produced a positive return outside of the one directly leveraged to the physical conflict is bitcoin, which is up meaningfully off its recent lows, outperforming most other asset classes.