What were the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price this week?

The article explains how Bitcoin’s price was influenced by ETF inflows and outflows, macroeconomic data releases, and shifts in risk sentiment. It focuses on how these factors affected liquidity, volatility, and trader positioning over the course of the week.

How did Bitcoin ETFs impact the market in this weekly roundup?

Onramp’s roundup details whether spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows or outflows, how large those flows were, and how they correlated with intraday price moves. It also discusses what ETF demand suggests about institutional interest and medium-term support or resistance levels.

What macroeconomic events were important for Bitcoin this week?

The article highlights specific macro events—such as inflation prints, central bank commentary, or jobs data—and explains how they affected the dollar, yields, and risk assets. It then connects those moves to Bitcoin’s performance and investor risk appetite during the week.

What on-chain or derivatives signals does the roundup focus on?

Onramp reviews on-chain activity like realized profits and losses, exchange balances, and long-term holder behavior, alongside derivatives metrics such as funding rates and open interest. These indicators are used to gauge whether the market is leaning bullish, bearish, or neutral.

How does Onramp interpret Bitcoin’s outlook after this week?

The roundup concludes with Onramp’s interpretation of whether current flows, macro conditions, and on-chain data point toward consolidation, renewed upside, or downside risk. It frames this outlook in terms of risk management rather than short-term price predictions.

Roundup: Miner Capitulation, Hash Ribbons, & Price

NewOnramp raises Series A at $135M valuation. Read More →Onramp raises Series A at $135M valuation to bridge bitcoin’s next decade. Read More →

Zack Morris | Research Analyst

Jun 20, 2024

Miner Capitulation, Hash Ribbons, & Price

“Miner capitulation” has been cited by many as the cause of the recent, tepid bitcoin price action.

But what is miner capitulation, and how do we know when it is happening and when it is likely to end? What clues into future price action does being armed with this information give us?

Miner capitulation is when bitcoin miners start shuttering operations because they’ve become unprofitable, often accompanied by selling bitcoin to shore up balance sheets in this time of stress.

Specifically, the cost to mine bitcoin, borne mostly by the cost of electricity, starts to exceed the revenue from mining bitcoin. This can happen to a bitcoin miner when they’re costs unexpectedly rise, the quantity of bitcoin they’re mining per unit of cost falls due to either the block subsidy getting halved and/or a reduction in network fees, or, finally, when the bitcoin price falls in USD terms. Since a bitcoin miner’s costs are denominated in dollars but they’re revenues are dominated in bitcoin, the BTC/USD exchange rate is a crucial component of miner profitability although it is largely outside of a miner’s control.

Industry-wide miner capitulation typically happens in bear markets, because the bitcoin price is falling rapidly, and in the period post-halving, because the block subsidy is cut in half. Throughout bitcoin’s history, the block subsidy has comprised the substantial majority of miner revenue, with fees being the minority. As bitcoin matures and the block subsidy continues to halve every four years, fees will at some point flip the block subsidy as the primary source of miner revenue, and perhaps we will no longer consistently go through periods of miner capitulation post-halving.