How does the Bitcoin halving affect price in this cycle?

Onramp explains that the 2024 Bitcoin halving cuts new supply by 50%, amplifying the impact of steady or rising demand from ETFs and long‑term holders. While the exact timing of price moves is uncertain, prior cycles show that reduced issuance often supports higher prices over the following 12–18 months.

What role are Bitcoin ETFs playing in the current market?

According to Onramp, spot Bitcoin ETFs are a major structural buyer, regularly absorbing more BTC than miners produce on strong inflow days. This persistent demand tightens available supply on exchanges and can magnify upside moves when risk appetite and macro liquidity are supportive.

How do macro conditions influence Bitcoin right now?

Onramp notes that expectations for easier monetary policy, moderating inflation, and improving liquidity are broadly supportive for Bitcoin as a high‑beta macro asset. If real yields stabilize or fall and risk sentiment stays positive, these macro tailwinds can reinforce the bullish impact of the halving and ETF demand.

Is Bitcoin’s current consolidation bullish or bearish?

Onramp views the current consolidation near prior highs as constructive, suggesting that strong hands are absorbing supply after a sharp rally. While pullbacks of 20–30% are common in bull markets, the combination of ETF inflows, shrinking issuance, and resilient on‑chain metrics points to a bullish medium‑term structure.

What risks could derail the bullish Bitcoin thesis?

Onramp highlights several risks, including a sharp tightening in global liquidity, renewed inflation forcing higher real yields, or a major regulatory shock to Bitcoin ETFs or exchanges. Any of these could trigger deeper drawdowns, even if the longer‑term impact of the halving and fixed supply narrative remains intact.

Roundup: Revisiting Dollar Depreciation

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Roundup: Revisiting Dollar Depreciation – Onramp

The reality remains the same, however. A fiat system characterized by perpetual currency devaluation results in a two-tiered society that further bifurcates by wealth and class the longer the system persists. The system can maintain the illusion of solvency and stability so long as interest rates and relative debt burdens are at manageable levels.

However, the system becomes increasingly unstable as debt burdens balloon, leaving the central planners no choice but to accelerate inflation and currency debasement to reset the board and lower relative debt burdens back to manageable levels. But don’t just take our word for it; the International Monetary Fund laid out this playbook back in 2015.

Final Note

With relative global debt burdens still at or past levels that historically lead sovereign nations to default, expect politicians and central bankers to do everything in their power to distract you from what actually needs to happen. Setting aside the current tightening cycle—which paradoxically accelerates the debt spiral through skyrocketing interest expenses—suppression of interest rates relative to levels of debasement/inflation will be the norm on average. This will continue until debt burdens have been significantly reduced, requiring either a miraculous boom in productivity or further inflation.

Bitcoin and other assets not susceptible to arbitrary debasement will emerge as massive winners.

Podcast of the Week

For this week’s episode of The Last Trade, hosts Marty Bent, Jesse Myers, and Michael Tanguma were joined by Loren Asmus from Canterbury Consulting, an institutional investment consulting firm providing portfolio advice to pensions, endowments, and similar institutional capital allocators. The conversation was a peek behind the scenes at what institutional capital allocators are really thinking about Bitcoin and how it can fit into their portfolios. The conclusion is that the institutions are coming to Bitcoin, and have already begun… it is just a slower and more gradual process than many would hope.

Check out the full episode here.

Closing Note

Wrapping up this week’s digest, Onramp Bitcoin invites you to explore our offerings on our website.

With an industry-leading multi-party custody solution, Onramp allows Bitcoin withdrawals without triggering a taxable event. Onramp stands as an optimal solution for HNWI and institutions seeking Bitcoin exposure prior to transitioning to self-custody.

If Onramp’s offerings align with your needs, or those of someone you know, feel free to schedule a chat with us here.

Onward and Upward,

Dylan LeClair

Roundup: Revisiting Dollar Depreciation

Revisiting Dollar Depreciation: A Comprehensive Analysis

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Closing Note