What is the main driver of Bitcoin’s price action this week?

This week, Bitcoin’s price action is mainly driven by the tug-of-war between spot ETF flows and looming supply overhangs. Onramp notes that steady or positive ETF inflows are helping absorb selling from long-term holders, miners, and legacy creditors, but any slowdown in demand can quickly translate into sharper downside volatility.

How do ETF flows impact Bitcoin’s short-term outlook?

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows directly affect net daily demand. Onramp explains that when ETFs see consistent inflows, they remove coins from liquid circulation and support price. When flows turn flat or negative, existing structural sellers like miners and early investors can dominate, increasing the risk of pullbacks even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

Why are Mt. Gox and miner selling important for Bitcoin now?

Mt. Gox distributions and miner selling introduce additional supply into a relatively thin market. Onramp emphasizes that even a few billion dollars of forced or price-insensitive selling can matter over weeks, especially if it coincides with weaker ETF demand or tighter macro liquidity, making these overhangs key to the near-term risk profile.

What macro factors is Onramp watching for Bitcoin this week?

Onramp is watching real yields, dollar strength, and liquidity indicators such as central bank balance sheets and Treasury issuance. Rising real yields or a stronger dollar can pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets, while easier liquidity conditions and expectations of rate cuts tend to support renewed demand for BTC over the medium term.

How should long-term Bitcoin investors interpret this week’s volatility?

Onramp suggests that long-term investors view this week’s volatility through the lens of cyclical supply events and macro noise rather than a broken thesis. Short-term drawdowns driven by ETF flow pauses or one-off supply shocks have historically been common, while the broader adoption, halving-driven scarcity, and institutional demand trends remain the key long-run drivers.

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Roundup: ETF Delays, US Housing, & Bonds – Onramp

Finally, on the topic of the unprecedented bond sell-off, we can evaluate bitcoin’s position in comparison to what was conventionally deemed—prior to the significant sell-off—as the world’s risk-free refuge: the U.S. Treasury Bond.

When assessing bitcoin’s performance against TLT (U.S. 20+ year bond ETF), bitcoin is only about 39% below its all-time high. This is notably more robust than the 61% dip seen in the BTC/USD exchange rate.

It’s important to note that the current macroeconomic cycle is unlike any that bitcoin has experienced in its relatively brief existence. Despite this, bitcoin’s resilience is more evident than many might presume. Projecting forward and contemplating the probable actions of policymakers and central banks in response to a potential future economic downturn clarifies the picture even further.

Podcast of the Week

E018: Bitcoin’s Custodial Landscape Through a Legal Lens with Gavin Fearey

On this week’s episode of The Last Trade, hosts Marty Bent, Jesse Myers, and Michael Tanguma are joined by Gavin Fearey, a bitcoin-focused lawyer at Winstead Law Group. Gavin has been at the forefront of advocating for bitcoin’s unique custody capabilities, including petitioning the SEC in 2018 to recommend improved guidance on bitcoin custody regulatory matters. In this conversation, Gavin shares his perspective about institutional adoption of bitcoin, the shifting legal and regulatory landscape for bitcoin becoming clearer, and other unique legal considerations for bitcoin.

Check out the full episode here.

Closing Note

Wrapping up this week’s digest, Onramp Bitcoin invites you to explore our offerings on our website.

With an industry-leading multi-party custody solution, Onramp allows Bitcoin withdrawals without triggering a taxable event. Onramp stands as an optimal solution for HNWI and institutions seeking Bitcoin exposure prior to transitioning to self-custody.

If Onramp’s offerings align with your needs, or those of someone you know, feel free to schedule a chat with us here.

Onward and Upward,

Dylan LeClair

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