9/4/25 Roundup: The Long End Calls the Bluff

Long-term bond yields jumped across major markets this week even as central banks lean toward easing at the short end. The Fed is now openly signaling a September interest rate cut.

That divergence is the tell.

"When you have $324 trillion of global debt, irresponsible fiscal deficits, and relentless inflation, investors demand more premium for the additional risk. And so, even as the Fed looks to lower short-term rates, yields on long-term bonds are still rising." — James Lavish on X

What is happening?

 Buyers of 10–30 year debt are demanding more yield to hold duration in a world of rising issuance, persistent inflation, and fiscal dominance.