The Last Trade: Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg breaks down bitcoin's brutal drawdown, why 94% of ETF investors aren't selling, the "silent IPO" of OG holders, and the macro case for what comes next.

🎙️ About This Episode

Eric Balchunas returns to The Last Trade to put bitcoin's 45% drawdown in perspective. Drawing on his deep expertise in ETF flows and investor behavior, Eric makes the case that this correction — while painful — is completely normal. With 94% of bitcoin ETF assets still intact and the fundamental debasement thesis unchanged, the real story may be less about what's going wrong and more about the price investors pay for outsized long-term returns.

The conversation covers the "silent IPO" of OG holders taking profits, why ETF investors are the smart money in this cycle, the Kevin Warsh Fed chair implications, and why short-term narratives drawn from a year of data are "so dumb." Eric also shares what's exciting him in the broader ETF space — including the race to get SpaceX and other private companies into exchange-traded wrappers.

🧠 Chapters

02:07 — Intro & Welcome Back Eric Balchunas 04:16 — "Bitcoin Is Rocky Balboa" & Contextualizing Drawdowns 10:18 — Volatility Is the Cost of Admission 13:30 — The Silent IPO: OGs Selling & Why That's OK 23:41 — Kevin Warsh, the Fed & the Trump Put 34:58 — Understanding the Problem to Understand Bitcoin 38:59 — Why 94% of ETF Investors Aren't Selling 45:41 — Value Investing Wisdom & Human Psychology 49:51 — Crypto Contagion, Tokenization & Bitcoin's Separate Lane 55:35 — Vanguard vs. BlackRock & the Race for Private Markets 1:06:00 — Closing Thoughts, Outro & Disclaimer