Gold at $5,000 Is Just the Beginning | Jeroen Blokland

Let's be clear, Bitcoin is an international asset. >> We are spending like drunken [music] sailors. >> Bitcoin is the only economic entity where the [music] supply is unaffected by the demand. >> If you [music] want to preserve your wealth, you have to convert that currency into an asset that's [music] scarce, desirable, portable, durable, and maintainable. [music] Welcome back to Scarce Assets and welcome Yurum Blockland. You're back on the show. It's great to have you. Thank you for making the time to speak with us today and congratulations on the book launch. >> Yes, thank you and thank you on the launch. It was uh it took a while, especially translating it into English, which is not my native language, but it's there. It's out there and uh pretty happy with it so far. >> Yeah. Well, I haven't gotten through all of it just yet, but I did read the first few chapters and then had the opportunity to review and gloss over the middle back end of the book as well. And really excited to read through the entire book as well as discuss some of the core themes of it today. Um, I do want to start with just acknowledging that your thesis around scarce assets sound money is really being proven out in real time. Right before we hit record, we were just talking about how incredible the rally has been in precious metals in particular, both gold and silver. Gold adding about 20 trillion to its market cap in about 18 months, which is just remarkable. Um, and before we get into the first question I want to ask you, I just want everyone to be aware of your background. So, Yurun's a seasoned multi-asset investor with more than 20 years of experience constructing and managing client investment portfolios. He is the founder and manager of the Blockland smart multiasset fund. The fund is built around a focused allocation to scarce assets which combines the most resilient asset class within the current financial system which is quality stocks and then with assets outside of that system physical gold and Bitcoin. So Euron I'm really a big fan of what you do. I think you are living in the future as it relates to just managing client assets and managing portfolios. And so the first question would be, man, what an exciting time for precious metals. I really, you know, even though I'm a Bitcoiner myself and hold most of my net worth in Bitcoin and that's been incredibly disappointing in 2025, I'm at least happy to see that sound money is really making a resurgence. And I I am happy for those who have held gold and silver for so long because I know it's been a painful ride, but finally vindicated by the moves that have happened in the past year or so. So, I think the most exciting place to start would just be talk about um gold breaking through 5,000 per ounce. You've been calling for, you know, kind of a structural repricing, a reallocation to precious metals as part of the investment strategy. So, I'm curious, what do you attribute just the massive move in gold and perhaps silver if you want to talk about that as well? I know that's not a uh part of the portfolio, but I'm I'm uh confident as well it's still an asset class that you monitor very closely. Yeah, it is because everything that is scarce is better than not scarce assets like that and fiat currencies of course. Uh now on the gold so um I think um a couple of things have uh uh happened that the first I think is more gradual that more and more people start to understand that um um aging societies and their economies um to be able to continue to grow they need that so literally they need that to buy uh GDP growth um and I think a lot of People now understand that this whole debt conceptual debt idea that in the end some government will pay back your debt uh that is now gone. It's now a lot about rolling over debt. Um is there uh liquidity enough to make sure that refinancings are not uh uh interrupted because that would of course put pressure on this whole debt driven system. Uh so I think one change is okay the the the the the general thought about debt. I'm lending my money to someone or a government that does uh healthy things with it and then generates GDP growth in the end. Um perhaps the GDP growth is still partly valid even though the debt intensity is going up as so we need ever more depth to to create one unit of GDP. uh but that in the end that you will get your money back in the sense that that will be repaid or even lowered. I think that is something uh a lot of people and investors now understand that is not going to happen because the whole system is driven on that debt and then you start um people to think okay so what is actually the value of that debt um how is that debt driven system uh what what is needed to make sure it doesn't collapse oh central banks must in the end buy that debt so they will create money or through banks they will create money this is this whole discussion of course um that means is that my money which is already money that has no real value uh underneath it uh is even more worthless so to say. Yeah. So let's find something that stores value, my value, my wealth uh um um that that retains purchasing power, however you want to call it. So I think this is a gradual idea since the great financial crisis, but especially after the COVID crisis, it's so obvious we can only grow using that uh and that must be monetized at some sort or some moment. So that's one. The second thing that why things are pretty crazy now is that um your president so to say is very uh obvious about uh what a lot of people I think intrinsically anticipated that this changing world order uh but this guy is saying it out loud every day. Oh, we are not going to help you anymore. Uh Europe, you have to get your act together. Uh invest in defense, things like that. uh we had the Greenland thing of course where uh it's very obvious so I think the national adviser of Trump said this is not about um making friends this is basically who is the strongest who is the biggest uh and we are going to divide the world in this uh new monetary order world order global order whatever you and that also um adds the geopolitical aspect so um if you look at uh Bloomberg headlines for years every time gold was up for some reason there was this Bloomberg headline or some other headline. Yes, geopolitics are going up. But this time the geopolitical factor is much more real. It's it's very realistic. You see what is happening internally in the United States. You also see this whole um debate in Europe. Uh yeah, this whole climate thing. Is it still valid or should we maybe uh add a little bit more of defense spending because there's there on on the one side there's this war going on and on the other side there's now an angry man that won't help us anymore basically like that. So this whole geopolitical uh angle and I think uh putting these two together with the fact that inflation is still not down where it should be. So a lot of people also understand that inflation is a problem. Uh I think that is uh how do you call that a perfect storm for an asset that is outside the system um has proven to be uh perhaps the the longest lasting uh store of value and is known for its uh geopolitical hedge so to say. So yeah then and then suddenly when you then realize that a lot of people do not own and did not own any gold not any because it's still a 6040 world 60% equities 40% bonds. Yeah. Then then you also have the catalyst. People actually must move in their asset uh allocation. Central bank must move to move away from the dollar like the Chinese are doing. Uh because um um the weight of gold was just too low. So there's also uh people must act to do something and and still a lot of these traditional uh asset managers they talk about gold but they do not invest in gold at least not strategically or um uh or for the longer term they they now offer it if a client really wants it uh but it's not part of their strategic idea or in a future proof proof portfolio. So I think adding all these things together is what makes this explosive mix that you see every every day. Uh, and for me, as we discussed also before, for me, this is going way too fast. I wanted to calm down. I wanted to to go much much uh slower than that uh because then it's more predictable and I like uh predictable. So, >> yeah, I mean, there's a lot that we could go into and I'm really excited to get into the catalyst uh a little bit later in the conversation because to your point, I think it is incredibly early. You know, when I think about the gold rally, what I heard from you is the first component is recognizing that the debt needs to be monetized. There's no way to grow out. Um, you know, the growth is slowing for a number of reasons that you write in your book. The second piece is that geopolitical tensions are rising and they don't seem to be um that trend does not seem to be changing in any short order. So, I'm curious then like if you could unpack the idea of how long this will actually last and maybe the answer is a long time or as long as we think, right? But you write in the book that gold offers unmatched protection against inflation and serves as the anchor beneath nearly every financial system. So these qualities ensure that gold's inevitability comes back or stages a comeback whenever the system comes under strain. And you write and it always will sooner than later. And so right now I feel like we're in the the sooner point because it does seem like gold has staged to come back. And so I'm curious how long does this comeback last? Is this really going to be a structural repricing of sound money for the foreseeable future? >> Yeah. Uh yeah, that is of course the uh the $1 million question as especially right now. So I think um I wrote a post on X and LinkedIn the other day. Um I I'm intrigued, let me put it mildly, by all these people jumping on this narrative. this is only the beginning and you have seen nothing yet and I told you so and all of these they just jump from narrative to narrative to narrative. The thing is with gold doubling in what whatever uh uh months I don't know if in the short run this is sustainable uh I don't know if we are uh heading for a major pullback and a minor pullback can happen any day. So the only thing I can do and that is also the core of the book I would say uh is to say okay what was my thesis again what should happen with gold and the price of gold uh to um make this um depriven system more stable to to rebalance it. So that that means that the price of gold measured in fiat currencies be it um dollars, euros, yen also interesting right now yuan of course um must rise because I'm of the strong belief I did a lot of research for the book of course that um we need this whole gold ID but most of the time it is gold anchor uh so people have to believe in some kind store of value and every single time that societies or emperors or kings um um debase their currencies and sometimes they did that literally of course with their coins and then reducing the amount of silver or gold in it. um you can do that only to a certain point and then uh the system resets and sometimes that's very explosive and a whole new system arise and sometimes um you just get a reset we start over again and that means that a dollar must be backed by gold the euro must be back u backed by gold or at least to a large extent now if I look at um money supply for example so money supply uh which is M2 and um if I'm correct and a lot of people know more about is that's even a too narrow measure for money uh because it's not total liquidity. But let's take um M M2 because most people understand the broad money supply uh definition of over the last two months uh if you analyze that it has grown by 17%. 17 so it's only two months but it's analyzed 17%. It's now one uh 17 trillion uh US dollars. So my idea is simple. you have the market cap of gold which is rising exponentially currently uh but I think it's now over 30 35ish or something and you have uh 117 on the money supply side so that is one out of three even a little bit less say let's say 30% corridge now it used to be 60 before the second world war it used to be 80 during the uh Romans it was 100% but because gold was the gold coin so I don't know um if 60 is the end target. I don't know if 80 is the end target. I do know because just look around what is happening at 30%, even after this explosive rise, it is not enough to restore confidence to rebalance the economies and say okay we have this depth driven system that's fine because we now have a lot of gold value in the system now. So that is my only thesis and if that goes uh from here straight to 10,000 and then we are at 60% coverage or 50% coverage I don't know. Uh but I do think in the longer term now that this the the only um um thing that can structurally break this trend uh is if some other factor restores trust in the system but with depth rising increasingly. So we have not talked about the debt numbers. So money supply is 117 trillion but total depth is 3346 trillion. So if you match gold to that it's even uh and you can say that depth is basically money so to say. Um so that is my general thesis. The the balance is not restored enough yet. That means the one has to rise relative to the other going forward. If that is over two years, five years, six years, 10 years I don't know. I have serious no idea. it be must the the gold coverage come to from 30% now to 60 70 or 80 I don't know I think for the Chinese it has to be 100 to make their currency appreciated by other countries I don't want to have the yuan unless it's backed 100% by some store value um and and that is basically how I look at it so it's not done but when this f next step materializes could be tomorrow as at rate as we're going could be in a couple of years from now with longer term thesis is is that enough balance? No, it is not. Just look around what is happening. Nobody has a lot of trust in institutions in central banks. Uh in the case of the United States, the central the independence of the central bank is actually questioned by the president. Uh you can you cannot you cannot argue that there's something happening there even though uh central bankers want want to be or look independent. So um that that is my answer to your uh pretty difficult question. I would say >> when it comes to holding Bitcoin securely, peace of mind starts with architecture. On-ramp's multi-institution custody distributes control across three independent regulated keyholders in a two of three quarum. No single point of failure, no pulled or omnibus exposure, segregated client titled vaults. You retain full legal ownership while on-ramp coordinates security, compliance, and operational workflows behind the scenes. It's strength of many delivered through the simplicity of one. Multi-institution custody is the foundation for everything we build. Sound infrastructure that distributes counterparty risk and provides fault tolerant resilience with clear audits and institutional controls. And now on-ramp is piloting flat, predictable pricing, making best-in-class Bitcoin custody and financial services more accessible now than ever. On-ramp, strength of many, simplicity in one. To learn more, check out onrampbitcoin.com. >> I'm sorry to give you a difficult question to start the interview here, but you know, I have noticed that as well, right? Um the the mirage of Fed independence in particular is certainly waning. It's been interesting in my shorter career about 10 years in traditional finance and now in the Bitcoin space. I've never seen anything as dramatic as we've seen just in the past 6 to 12 months with Jerome Pal and President Trump. And it's kind of refreshing to be honest because Trump does kind of just say what's on his mind. And it's at least refreshing to the extent that it's nice to see that the idea of Fed independence is really nothing more than an idea or it's nothing more than a perception rather, right? So now you have like the Trump administration has been pressuring and has been slandering quite frankly Jerome Pal in public for months now and they're going to appoint a new Fed chair that will serve the political means of the United States government. Now people economists will say that that's not right but I would say that the Federal Reserve and central banks have never operated independently. They've always been serving the needs of the government. What are your thoughts on that? >> To a certain extent yes. So uh if you look for example in Japan the ministry of finance uh decides if there's yen intervention or not not the central bank uh on its own. So um central bank independence uh with a government that basically holds all power is always relative right the thing now is that uh Trump is very vocal about that. So here in Europe we do it um implicitly. So you have all these discussions about uh how how big uh must the ECB balance sheet be uh to make sure that financial markets work properly. Um uh um Miss Lard uh had to use the word uh inflation is only transitory to make sure that she uh could be able to start interest rate hikes uh not until Euro zone inflation was 8.6%. So that is not independence questions literally but it does show you she was in favor of getting these debt levels down after the COVID crisis and she was definitely not focused solely on uh uh bringing in inflation down to eight uh to 2% from that 8.6% 6% right so so I think there are many many examples in the book um I um uh give an overview of all the different programs that the central banks have launched uh since great financial crisis all these abbreviations all these difficult uh uh programs 90% of them were about bond buying even despite what inflation was below target above target uh not looking at the target most of the time central bank um uh crisis programs or whatever programs are focused on bond buying not on bringing inflation down or up. Um so um you can you can say this is not a question of independence literally or or directly but certainly it it it must um um you must ask questions about why they are doing that and um the fact is that they they now because of fiscal dominance you can call it whatever you want but they are forced they are forced I don't think that every central bank banker wants to but they are forced to also keep an eye on that sustainability uh next to inflation and sometimes debt sustainability takes over. Take for example Italy um and in the European debt crisis. Now you have President Trump forcing is uh um um um hitting uh the the the the chairman of the the the Federal Reserve. So you have all kinds of forms. Uh in Japan they had eight years of yield curve control. Eight years. The only thing that it was when it was implemented for a longer time was after the second world war in the United States. The only time but Japan just did it 8 years without a massive crisis. Uh in the the ECB kept interest rates uh below zero for seven straight years. There was not always a crisis. So um and this is the interesting um uh point when I talk to 6040 investors um these investors have realized reasonable returns because of the great performance of equities but somehow because their overall return was pretty okay. they they they refuse I I call it refuse to think about what is happening to central bank central bank independent uh see debt driven economic systems and um um even in the case of US President Trump some people refuse to think okay something is happening or at least what you mentioned central bank independence is always relative so so and sometimes it's nobody talks about it and now it's the talk of the town of Uh but I think it's it's so naive to say that uh central banks can always do what they want in the benefit of the people to keep inflation at 2% which is already a strange uh target by the way but that that's another story. Um, how can you, if you really understand what all of these central bank have done, all of their programs, all of their bond buying, um, how can you, uh, uh, argue that this is central bank independency? >> I don't know. I don't understand. >> Yeah, that's a great stat you called out there. I I didn't get there in the book yet, but 90% of the b um 90% of intervention you said was bond buying, and it was not relative to inflation being up or down. And one of the great anecdotes and then let's get into um the great rebalancing but one of the great anecdotes you had at the start of the book I think reinforces two themes that we were just discussing. The first is trust in the system in the financial system in my opinion is still on the decline. Right. And so you mentioned that gold and hard assets will need to back the financial system at some to some extent in the future where there's enough trust restored in those currencies and in the debt levels. But right now that's not happening. And you have a great anecdote um from 2022 with the UK and I think this is often forgotten about or overlooked uh by many people. Could you tell us again what happened just a recap with trustics and what I think the most important takeaway is what happened with the bond market and why that really challenges the 6040 portfolio and then we can get into um you know some of the themes of the book there. >> Yeah. And it's it's it's very um timely as well as if you look at what is happening in Japan. So I will come there as well. So in 2022 UK if you look at the UK uh finances potential GDP growth uh levels is one of the most vulnerable uh countries uh uh financially so to say. Uh and they demonstrated that in 2022. Uh what happened um uh list and her people uh decided to uh announce a tax cut mostly for the rich uh that was unfunded. So there was no uh cutting of expenditures somewhere else. Um and uh for some reason because this is always a bit um difficult to uh forecast when something like this will happen. But markets took that really the wrong way and suddenly the idea was but okay we already have these fragile finances. We have these big budget deficits. Um this is not going to work. If you are going to hand out unfunded tax cuts, uh then the last bit of budget discipline, if it even was still there, uh is out of the window, right? Um and in a matter of days, um uh bond prices collapsed. Uh but also less liquid, uh bond prices collapse. For example, inflation link bonds. These were these were used massively by pension and insurance uh uh um uh companies. Uh and and and the thing was um everything collapsed. Um yields spiked and the funny thing was the funny thing was that uh in I think less than 10 days or two weeks uh the bank of Japan of the bank of England had to step in and in the end they had to buy more bonds. The amount of bonds was bigger than the whole unfunded tax cut that was announced. And so this was the market saying if you do do something stupid like that with such fragile finances we are going to punish you and in the end there's only one solution. Uh the the the um the central bank has to uh make sure that markets don't spiral out of control. So it's it's very it it's really laid bare the vulnerabilities in a depth driven system. Whenever your budget deficit is is large enough or your depth is high enough or the combination of the both at some point if you do something that does not fit um um uh um um something called budget discipline then then things will go uh uh the wrong way. Now uh even though the situation is Japan is in to some extent different um we now had the new prime minister and she always also uh announced um um food uh uh tax cuts. Basically the same thing happened had the bond yields in Japan were already rising but uh there was one day after she announced it that I think the 30-year bond yield went up uh by a quarter of a percentage point. Now that never happens uh in Japan uh because they had eight years of youth grow control but you saw the same thing happening. There was a prime minister or a politician announcing or suggesting or proposing uh unfunded this was partly unfunded tax cuts. It was also temporary. uh this uh um um but with these high debt levels and budget deficits um uh also larger than 5% of GDP even though Japan is doing a little bit better in recent years um again we saw the same dynamic uh but less extreme so so um it means that if you believe and I a lot of people believe that if you believe that countries um are able to run structural high deficits because yeah it's it's very difficult to cut expenditures or to increase taxes. Um then you must also um also understand that the way the bond market works uh changes and that was the uh second part of your question this whole so in my book but I can show you many charts. I I'm I I'm a um a practical guy. I just look at numbers and then try to make sense of what is happening. So if you look at the relative volatility of bonds to gold or equities doesn't matter both same time they they have doubled they have doubled. So from this whole idea this is a relatively safe asset that gives you a little bit of return it's now not really a safe asset giving you a negative real return once you take inflation into account. So I con I have been constructing um uh portfolios for my ent entire working life. That is what I do. I'm a multi-est investor. So if I have one asset class that changes its character characteristics because of what is happening in the world. So that that automatically ch changes my portfolio diversification, portfolio risk and return characteristics. So even if you have no view on what is happening in the world and why depth is a must if you want to continue grow but just look at the facts of the characteristics of bonds, equities, gold and whatever you want to then you will see that an allocation of 40% uh should then be 30% or 20% or in my case 0% but not 40 it should be less. Bonds is either the it depends on how you measure it. it's the biggest asset class or the second b biggest asset class. It depends a little bit on on on how you determine uh bond markets and indices and things like that. But let's say it's it's a very big asset class now and that has uh that must start uh to move. So um now you will see that the realized volatility of Japanese government bonds will spike. they will spike. Not only have they incurred a loss because interest rates are up, but also the volatility part, this whole safe asset uh part it's it's no it's it's not useful anymore. It's also not true anymore. Um and and and if you run the numbers, then you have to adjust your portfolio portfolio accordingly unless you believe that uh um for example bond volatility will go down again. But my question is how? because the the the source of the higher volatility is in the bond market and debt market itself. That is the core reason. It's not equities. It's not geopolitical. No, it's that uh that causes volatility. Now, and and then I my my point is then you have to be honest. uh if you want to give your clients the best possible uh strategic asset allocation that should involve a reduction of bond allocations from 40 to 30 from 30 to 20 in my case from to zero I don't know where you want to go but it cannot be the same as before >> yeah and I think that has incredible implications for capital markets right because to your point you still have most of the investable assets allocated to equities and fixed income a number that I saw before we started the interview was roughly $260 trillion of investable assets. Large majority of that is equities and fixed income and then there's real estate of course um and then alternative assets of various types uh including Bitcoin which is part of your strategy. But what I think is remarkable, Yurun, is that the fact that you have a very pragmatic and practical stance and case in your book, and you've been an advocate for this for a number of years now. And you're not the only one. There's many people out there who are advocating for scarce asset allocation, sound money, the debt is unsustainable, inflation is higher, rates are lower, negative real yields. I'm really curious like what is the catalyst for the great rebalancing and the the context for the listener as well is the great I'll define the great rebalancing as just the shift of and I I want you to correct me but the shift of investable assets into assets that actually accurately portray the risk factors and the return factors at play. Right? So you're what I'm taking away from the great rebalancing is we're moving away from fixed income being a core part of portfolios and having to move into scarce assets. So I'm curious a what is your definition of the great rebalancing then b let's start talking about the catalyst. What will make this happen? >> Um no I think this was a pretty good um way of describing it. So the great rebalancing for me is um the gradual not so gradual now but the gradual realization that the the traditional way that we have been told how to invest to build a proper um um um investment portfolio for the long run um is not done by combining only equities and bonds anymore. And it doesn't m matter what kind of flavors of equities and bonds. The whole thing is that one of these two asset classes will not deliver not on return but also not on the risk diversification part. So um and this is also in the book I I of course as you say I I look at numbers uh I look to 40 years back on the characteristic of um um bond equity portfolios and equity gold uh portfolios. Now uh we can talk about sharp ratios and things like that. It's too technical. But you can see if over the last 40 years a portfolio um including gold instead of uh bonds was already better. But if you look look at the last 10 years, 20 years, 30 years uh they are no not need not not even close to each other. So um bonds for example have given you a negative real return over the past 20 years. And let that sink in. to give your money to the government for 20 years uh and then in the end if you add inflation to it you have lost. Yeah. So what is what is the whole idea of a bond? So if you if you put that into statistics like the sharp ratio the the sharp ratio literally goes off the chart because because a sharp ratio below zero doesn't tell you anything only that the asset that you invested in uh had a negative return. Um and that is that is that is that is the okay. So my um to answer your question the catalyst must come I I think from two ways. The first we discuss kind of what is happening now. So uh uh uh um uh less trust in the financial system less trust that dev can be repaid. Less trust that there won't be any uh further uh heavy uh fiat currency debasement through money creation inflation things like that. all of the things that you see playing out now. Geopolitical tensions rising structurally because um yeah uh this thing the clash between China and United States is also still unfolding. Um but the other part is and and this is uh the interesting part for me um and I also described this in the book. So uh I come from the traditional finance you as well that you have these we call them calculators but the people that are very good in statistics. So they will run the numbers and especially after this year when they run the numbers uh with the 2025 data they will see that their optimization models will not spit out any allocation toward bonds. None zero. So this is this is the the objective outcome. Now what most um asset allocators do they have all these kind of boundaries and ranges that they give restrictions uh to the optimization model. But if you run the optimization model without restrictions, my guess is uh even over 40 years but especially over 30, 20 and 10 years you will get zero bond allocation. Zero. So then these people will have to go to their boss but something changed and then it depends on the boss. This is a little bit a story you understand but um are we going to do something with that or not? And then that boss has to go to the CEO. Okay, you have to kick out all of our bond guys and girls because bonds are not going to help our clients anymore. Now, now I think you understand this is something really really difficult because they the CEO is as shareholders uh maybe is listed uh and things like that and so um I think that a lot of people higher up in these traditional asset managers are very rare aware of what is happening. But are they the ones to be the first one to tear down their business model? Um so my guess is that um and I I I expect this to happening right now once their clients start to leave saying you are not giving me option of alternative asset classes. You are not looking at the numbers. My own optimization uh model that I can now use using CGPT or Grock uh says 0%age in bonds and you give me 40. So, so this is this is the catalyst I expect. I must also immediately admit that I would have expected this already uh six 12 months ago. So, it's very slow process. It's a very frustrating process. But this is the thing I think a lot of these people are aware that if you run the numbers and strategic asset allocation is looking uh in in the in the rear mirror and then hoping that things stay the same. Yeah, you cannot you cannot say that things are the same. So and also the numbers have changed. So I think the catalyst is already there but who is going to tear down its own fixed income department which uh yields a lot of uh income earnings and things like that. So I think this is also about uh stakes. So, who is going to up the stakes? And I also think this is the reason why a lot of my semico competitors um are more like fintech or smart tech guys and girls than traditional investors going out because I had to get out of the traditional system and start a new fund to make sure that I could do what I wanted to do. So and I think this is a more this is a slower uh process than than I anticipated but I think that will be the catalyst the catalyst in terms should we do something is already there geopolitical just look outside uh but also running the strategic asset allocation mean variance optimization numbers whatever you want to use uh they won't spit out 40% bonds at all here's the conversation no one wants to have if something happened to you tomorrow could your family access your Bitcoin really Think about it. The seed phrase hidden in your house, the hardware wallet in the safe, that complex multisig setup. You understand it, but does your spouse, do your children? Billions and Bitcoin are already lost forever because people did not plan for this moment. On-ramp's inheritance solution is built into our multi-institution custody from day one. Three institutions, clear beneficiary designation, and professional succession planning. No technical knowledge required from your heirs. And with our new flat tier pricing starting at $250 monthly, your family won't face surprise custody costs just because Bitcoin appreciated. The same predictable fee whether Bitcoin hits 200K or 2 million. Don't leave your family's future to chance. There's strength in many. Visit onrampbitcoin.com/inheritance. That is onrampbitcoin.com/inheritance. Yeah, I mean those are great points and a couple things stick out to me because first and foremost it's an unfortunate situation that you describe where you have the advisor client relationship. The adviser is representing the broader firm's interests and they're leaning on they're most people are not actually deceptive, right? But they're leaning on the resources of the firm and the firm whether it's, you know, let's just say one of the major wirehouses that has investment strategy teams and they're still recommending equity largely equity fixed income allocations and maybe tactically you might want to own some gold or you might want to have some alternatives like structured notes to have some sort of um to meet some sort of investment objective. The the challenge though to your point though is that you kind of have that top- down direction from investment strategy teams from boardrooms from seuite executives at these firms and the adviserss who are representing the client interest um are not are just kind of following the leadership of their firm but to your point the client may start to realize I think the most acute and most um the most acute and most painful path to realization is probably people just recognizing that even though their brokerage account balance is going up over time. It's affording them less and less things that they want, right? And then you have some amount of those people that start to maybe ask more critical questions of themselves or their adviserss. But it's great, you know, I generated a 10% or 15% return in my portfolio last year, but I've noticed the trend over each year. I'm unable to, you know, keep up with my insurance premiums or keep up with my auto loan, what whatever it may be, right? And so I think unfortunately there's just going to be a lot of pain realized because most people are not portfolio managers, right? They're relying on someone else to be the expert to help advise them. And it's unfortunate because unless and with the exception of I would say more independent registered investment advisors and probably more like let's say um more creative or uh adviserss who think a little bit more out of the box. most people are just following the guidance that they get from their firm. And then one of the other challenges to loop that in as well is you mentioned the the firm leadership not wanting to cause upheaval within the organization. I you know where my head goes is well what you're proposing your own is most people should own little bonds and maybe in many cases no bonds at all but that is a huge issue to governments that need people and institutions to be purchasing their bonds. So I'm curious, do you think at some point within this uh great rebalancing the governments start to fight back? Do you think that there's financial repression, capital controls, mandates from governments that institutional investors, even maybe retail investors that have managed accounts need to own bonds? Do you think that is coming? Because how else do they keep the demand outside of just continuing to monetize the balance sheet and let inflation balloon? >> Yeah. Yeah. Very good question. Uh before I answer that, the answer is by the way, yes. I think that will happen and it is already pretty clear it is happening. Uh one step back um what I have noticed is this people really don't understand inflation. They just don't understand it. And I think some of these uh larger asset managers or or or as you mentioned they they get briefed on the top down. I really don't think they understand what happens with your money, your savings, your bond investments when you walk around in the groceries, but you are frustrated that prices are so high. And uh I have clients that invest with me uh but uh and not that they they have to invest with me but invest in general but they keep sitting on that savings account because what they see in their banking app they see this little ad uh every month uh of that low interest rates. So they feel they the only thing they see and that's the same. I too am guilty of presenting my returns in nominal terms otherwise nobody understands my returns but I would like to present them in real terms. So if if everything that you see prices in the grocery store but also in your banking app and your returns is nominal people do not understand and they that's not a bad thing. it they're just not accustomed to looking at real stuff. Uh and that's also difficult if you don't understand real stuff. You don't don't understand gold for example because that's real stuff. So I think um u we can talk about investing and I do that a lot of course in my book but uh I too should add more emphasis on what actually is is the value of money and how it is deteriorated or depaced or whatever you want to call it by central banks by inflation by money supply growth. Um um and I think once people understand that part better then I think the going back to your previous question the um demand pool give me something else in my portfolio will accelerate. So that is that is my my idea and that's also why I spend so much time uh um making charts about inflation because it's just difficult to make people uh understand. uh then on the financial repression yes definitely um because otherwise the system won't work um um so for you have thousands of examples but for example um um uh the bank for international settlements the the the central bank of uh central banks um they determine what is required or what counts as a buffer for liquidity uh uh uh ratios and and and and buffers for against a financial crisis. Uh every single time sovereign bonds are the first on the list. They are always first. You get no cut off, you get no haircuts, you get no this is this is every time um um the all kinds of regulations in the pension industry uh in the insurance industry. Uh they make sure uh that you have to buy bonds to to be able to meet regulations. Um look at stable coins. I think the US is is pretty clever on this. Okay, everybody wants to have stable coins. Let's make sure that stable coins must buy government bonds. That's the deal. So, Europe again missed out on that whole concept. We we want to forbid it. But it was an actually a great tool. So, now 95% of all um stable coins is US dollar based. So, it's 5% or 2% in Europe. It's laughable. But if they stimulated that, they also had a new resource of bond buying uh um um for all these um uh debt that has to be bought from France and things like that. So yes, you you are going to see uh financial repression uh happening um and again that takes all kinds of uh sources. So um in the Netherlands and another couple of countries they now are talking about and in some countries it's already active you have the exit tax. So if you leave the country you have to pay. So so there are thousands of different ways that you can keep money within the system and um can you force IRA or 401ks in your country and other um uh so in in in because of the the defined contribution is also getting bigger in the Netherlands. Uh you're also there are lots of uh commercials build your own uh pension uh fund for later. Um technically all of these investments uh could uh yeah be forced financial repression to buy bonds. So uh I expect uh there is always a buyer of last resort central banks. So while they will explain to you that the central bank balance sheet must be big because of liquidity and refinancing. It's also when nobody uh and this is also my big um uh issue I have with Mnt uh uh uh uh modern monetary theory. Um who is going to buy who wants to buy the bonds? I'm not. So this creates creates an issue. So you can issue bonds like never before. But still uh and the thing is uh I get a lot of push back but because then someone thinks in a balance sheet and it says yes but if it's a liability for the government it must be an asset on somebody's balance sheet right but if that asset gives you a negative real return because interest rates are below inflation who wants to hold that asset and so financial >> no no so there must be some rule that forces others >> and hopefully not us to buy those bonds and in the end it's always the central bank and this is why the the share of bonds uh and debt that the central banks have is growing over time because every day somebody wakes up this nice interview that I saw on the on ramp uh uh podcast I must sell my bones so somebody else must buy that wonderful asset through financial repression. So yes [laughter] right right yeah that you made you made a number of uh great points that I think are worth reinforcing. And the first is on the stable coin front. Tether became in the top 20 largest holders of US treasuries in 2025. >> Yeah. >> And that happened like overnight, right? That happened in a matter of a year. I mean, they they've owned for for a number of years US treasuries, but the scale and accumulation that that happened is remarkable. >> Yes. >> And so to your point that stable coins are certainly going to be um a sponge for a lot of government securities, particularly US government securities because to your point, 95% of stable coin issuances dollar denominated. Another um great tool for financial repression that comes to mind is 401ks. So I just kind of went through this recently. I had some stale old 401ks from previous employers that I hadn't rolled over and um you know that was my laziness quite frankly. I should have done it much sooner. But if you just have a 401k plan with your employer, you're very restricted in terms of what you can own, right? So it's typically um you know just a few mutual fund options for equities, developed markets, emerging markets, US only etc. And then you have a number of fixed income options. To my knowledge, very very few in my experience at least working at large financial institutions. Very few companies actually offer any sort of alternative investments or anything besides equities and fixed income and 401k plans. Yes. And >> I don't know off the top of my head, I could Google it, but I don't know off the top of my head how how much is tied up in 401k and and the like in other countries as well, the equivalent, but that's a lot of money, right? And so that's just money that's allocated in many cases to fixed income. And most people don't really do anything with that. So that's just a great like that's almost like a passive bid, right? Because people contribute to their paychecks uh every every other week and that just flows into uh government securities. And then one point as well that maybe we should get a little bit deeper on is the idea of having money outside of the system. So we talked a little bit about gold at the start of the interview and in your investment strategy. You're holding physical gold vaulted. You're not holding paper claims. And then Bitcoin is another uh of course asset that exists outside of the system. And you also have a similar approach to your Bitcoin. You're not holding it on exchange. You're not holding ETFs. You're holding directly allocated to your fund with a reputable custodian of your choice. And so I'm curious just like in the context of geopolitical tensions, inflation, financial repression, how important is it in your opinion to own monies outside of the system? >> Uh I think it's crucial. So um I I'm I'm not in the camp that uh the financial system should collapse imminently or anytime sooner because I believe in this whole rebalancing uh trajectory. Uh but I think it's it's extremely uh we just talked about the the uh necessity of financial repression to keep all the so if you are forced to buy something you don't want to you must make sure that the money that can be forced to do that uh is is less or is somewhere else. That is that is the basic question you have to answer. How do I get my uh money out of the system so that I can't be forced to debase it or to buy government bonds with it or think or to pay taxes on it or No, that's all all the so I think um you should have um um your money in what is proven to be stores of value that can also be a classic Ferrari but that's not practical. um um um and also if possible outside um um uh the financial system uh that build that that thrives on that whole depth system uh right so so with gold and bitcoin I think you have a pretty uh uh two well-known but also uh pretty interesting alternatives as long as you are uh uh the holder of those so you mentioned paper money uh paper gold or or bitcoin ETFs uh bitcoin futures now and derivatives. So derivatives are at the end of the spectrum and in the end when when the music stops you end you own nothing because these are not backed all as there are much more derivatives than there are there is the physical stuff underneath it right so so please if if you decided you have to uh make sure that you own it uh in some cases for example in gold that means you must rent a vault in Switzerland because that I think is the best location uh from a European perspective uh and that costs uh money. Yes. So a lot of people say, "Yeah, but that's expensive. I can buy in gold ETF for 35 basis points or something." Yes. But if push comes to shove, it's not allocated to you. Um what happens if if everybody demands his gold? Is is it is it still there? Uh so that yes, it must be outside the system, but uh as is now very popular to say on X and LinkedIn, own asset and in my case, own scarce asset. You must make sure that you can actually reach it. you can touch it or you can make whatever reason, whatever method, make sure it is uh uh yours. Um um and and that and that is I think um um a must have that should be added. So so I I know a lot of people just buy Bitcoin ETFs or on some exchange or or buy Bitcoin on some exchange. Yeah. be very aware of that your uh money out of sight of the system is not really your money outside of the system if things uh uh uh go the wrong way. Right. >> Right. Totally agree. Uh and I want to be respectful of time so maybe we can try to get through a few more questions. Um just kind of rapid fire almost. So one of the things Yurun you talk about is the the scale of the wealth transfer that's currently underway, right? You have the baby boomers that own so much wealth. uh last I saw was 80 trillion um I believe at le maybe maybe that was the US specifically um and that was a few years old so it's they have a ton of wealth uh there's a transfer that's happening as they age they pass away uh children inherit which is predominantly millennials etc I'm curious just anything else you would want to call out as relates to the great rebalancing and the wealth transfer that we didn't cover already >> yeah so um in my book I used uh num the number is uh uh 124 uh trillion. Uh and if you compare that to the total market cap of equities and bonds, you are not that far off. So that's how much money um um is going to transfer. And of course, a lot of that money is actually in equities and bonds because these are baby boomers. Um my idea is um um uh first there's a lot of attention uh on the size of that amount. uh and of course what younger generations will do with that uh money. Yeah. So uh I also pay a lot of attention to that phenomenon and then you see that younger generations think totally different uh about different asset classes being crypto, bitcoin, uh real estate, uh bonds, equities. So um in gen to keep it general but the uh appetite for alternatives is way way way higher and and the appetite for bonds um is is way less. And also there was this nice I think it's Bank of America. They asked younger generation millennials uh what do you think that the traditional 6040 portfolio will be able to provide you and to realize a solid pension for you? And I think uh from the from the baby boomers it was 68 or 78% that said yes that's great. Uh and it was 28 28% uh for uh uh the younger generations. So a 40 or 50% gap. Uh so that is huge. Uh so that is one thing and of course there's a lot of talk about and to come back uh uh uh briefly to those traditional asset allocators. Uh when I was studying all these great wealth transfer um um dynamics I saw a lot really a lot of uh advisor as you already referred to saying but in the end these people will get old and they need bonds. No, you don't need bonds. They are destroying your purchasing power. You don't need bonds because you're old. That's that's not true. But they will say it because this whole fixed income department must must keep going, right? Um so the numbers are huge. The appetite for alternatives like gold and bitcoin are are are so much higher than for baby boomers. So if they are able to do because it also depends on the infrastructure and who who do you talk to and what is your fin financial advisor then that would be a major shift. Uh but the other point I like to make and I think that gets overlooked and uh unfortunately I do not belong to the millennials. I'm just a bit too old but I think hopefully like a millennial these will also be the people running the 41ks running the new the big asset managers running the political uh uh uh um departments with with finances and things like that. So so it's not only the money that is changing hand but also the mindset is changing. So um if you look at me so I'm 47 but I have a totally different mindset than the traditional asset manager I would say. So I think this is a again talking about catalysts the money is there they will inherit a lot a lot of money but also the mindset is there and this is also why it's so interesting even though I'm a simple investor to keep looking at the infrastructure structure of Bitcoin blockchain and so on because you also need the infrastructure to make that transition to do that rebalancing u um the rails have to be there so to say and I think this is an um uh very interesting part. Um I'm not going to give advice to younger generation, but if you get involved in developing these new rails, I think that is a great job. It doesn't exist right now. You use a bit of AI and things like that. But all this down downbeat uh there are a lot of new jobs to be created. There are lot of new investment solutions to be created. Uh so they have the money, they have the knowledge uh at some point and they have the mindset. they want to do something uh different and I think that last part should not be underestimated and millennials think different than baby boomers uh and that is going to materialize uh in in in different solutions in a different setup of how portfolios look and how we do our investments look at pensions things like that here's what keeps Bitcoiners awake you're still securing millions of dollars the same way you secured thousands that hardware wallet in your drawer your family's entire future depends on you not losing losing it, forgetting the PIN, or something happening to you. On-ramp's multi-institution custody removes that burden. Three independent institutions hold your keys. No single point of failure, no seed phrases to protect, no explaining complex recovery processes to your spouse. And now we're offering flat tier pricing. 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I think there's never been a better time to be alive, but at the same time, I think there's never been a time a worse time to be alive for a lot of people as well. But it all literally depends on how much agency you have in your life and how willing you are to use the tools at your disposal to further your skill set to further your uh value proposition in the workforce. Um, so it's something that's been on my mind a lot as well because I see so many people in my peer group, which is um, like I'm on the border of millennial and Gen Z and I see people early 30s, late 20s, a lot of them are in a very doom and gloom state because they see around them that to your point, the 60/40 portfolio is not going to work for me. The career path that I thought was safe and secure is not appearing to to be so. There's more and more layoffs happening. And then you see this in the rise of just like memecoins, prediction markets. A lot of people perceive the only potential way to have a future is to gamble and potentially hit it big, but as we know, most people end up losing. And so I certainly agree with you, man. I I think it's um it's a great time to be alive, but it really is a challenging time, right? We talked about geopolitical risk, we talked about inflation risk, we talked about having to request the assumptions of money and how do you preserve your wealth? There's just a lot to think about, but the tools are out there. And um I think your book's a great resource. And so before we close, you're just because I know you follow equity markets, you invest in equity markets, and namely quality stocks as part of the strategy. I'd be curious just to hear your thoughts on like the AI bubble discourse. I think um you know, some people think it's a bubble, other people think it's going to pro provide insane productivity gains that could potentially help get out of some of the debt situation. And I know in your book it I know it's a complex topic. I know in your book you go deeper but what are the highle thoughts on just artificial intelligence as it relates to investing and then also as it relates to growth. >> Yeah. So um on the growth part because I think that's easier. So um um I think that uh on the macro level uh AI will uh at least temporarily increase productivity. Uh but what a a lot of people forget is that uh aging an aging population declines productivity growth, lowers productivity growth because people of over 60 they will have trouble embracing AI and some even don't want to uh people that are over 60 they work slower than people that are 30 right so if you have an aging economy the basic trend is down in your productivity growth uh and I think AI can stop that or at least uh stop part of that downward trend. trend. Is it a a massive reversal? I don't think so because if you look at history, uh the downtrend is pretty uh clear. It's pretty stat statistical significant uh and it's also explainable. It is this has to do with this aging part. Um but but I do think it it will do something and then uh maybe even a more societal uh um uh I can relate to what you are saying. So I see a lot of people I do it as well sometimes to get angry about things that are not going in the right way or you are angry at Trump or the too much climate rules or whatever. And you see and I also think uh that a lot of people kind of give up and then they say I'm going to vote for someone um who is going to redistribute all sorts of wealth because I'm I'm not getting it so I want to take it from somebody else. But as you mentioned the whole AI space and that is what I do think offers a lot of risks in in let's say old school jobs but at the same time um um everybody agrees that this could be a time of massive changes some even said it's the it's the the fourth industrial revolution technical revolution whatever revolution so in a revolution there is so much to do uh and and I think that is um I see a lot of people that are a a little bit younger uh wrestling with that idea. But you have to build, you have to try stuff. You have to I have two young children. So they are six and nine. They're too young. But my my if I tell them something is this is new. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Try to build something with it. Uh and not look at the the ugly part that it will take something uh away. Yeah. So so that is uh I think how we should look at AI. It also has a lot of option uh options and chances but you have to adjust. you have to do things differently that I'm at 47 will not be able to do anymore. So I'm I'm too old. I'm I'm pushing the productivity growth level down. Um and then on the investing part um and this is this is uh relates to the whole thesis of quality stocks. So um I think that there will again just with the internet there will be a couple of winners and they decide uh they will um decide how the market works and they will also profit from everything that is going on. Um um so I don't think it's a bubble per se because uh the potential is huge. I do think and that happened to the internet again that investors are getting ahead of themselves or could be heading ourselves and then it takes longer um because it's not that these tech companies are not AI ready but all the other countries that have to implement their AI tools have to be ready and that takes much longer than uh um uh being the AI company developing all these AI tools and agents and things like that. So that is one thing. Uh and the second thing is and that will be a story for I think 2027 or 2028. The focus now is on uh government debt. So in the book most of the time it's about government debt. Um but quality stocks also have one of the three major characteristics being uh low levels of debt. Now every company in the world if you want or not you are getting punished if you don't you have to invest invest in AI and a lot of these companies will not be able to um uh make enough profits uh to uh make up for those investments and that is the what I think will happen in in maybe next year that companies that have invested heavily in AI but are not on top of the list are not monetizing it enough they will get punished and this is also quality stocks had a pretty dismal year uh last year. Um but I think the whole AI and I think that is a bubble the AI investment bubble uh because 80% of the companies won't make uh money enough money to uh um um reimburse those investments or pay pay down those loans. So that is not something that is uh um acute now a problem now but I do think this will be a a aatic uh in a couple of years when you see monetization of AI happening just not across all countries. Uh so that is my investment thesis on AI. I don't think AI itself is a bubble. I think parts of the AI investment um cycle is is a bubble. >> Thank you for that. If you have two more minutes I'd just be curious on the 2026 outlook. Anything else you'd want to share as it relates to other core assets in the portfolio? Bitcoin, gold. I know we t touched more on gold, but um anything related to Bitcoin for 2026 you're paying attention to. So um Bitcoin needs a catalyst and I don't know what the catalyst is. Uh for me it's pretty obvious you want to have want to have money outside of the system. Um I like the whole um so you have digital central bank currencies. Can I have digital store of value outside digital uh central bank currency please? Uh so for me settlement time is also a thing. So gold as a settlement time that's ages. Uh I like settlement time. Why do I like settlement time? That's uh also what uh Lynn Alden in her book highlighted. The more time there is between the transaction and the settlement, the more time there's for governments or central banks or banks to get in between. Bitcoin makes that extremely short period. That's what it's like as well because of financial repression. We talked about fiscal dominance, all these kinds of things. So I would say even though Bitcoin did not perform in 2025, the is the world moving towards the need of a digital store of value and Bitcoin is obvious obviously still the number one and will remain in my view the number one or is the world moving away? I think um gold is stealing the light of Bitcoin. But the way the world is developing, I would say, isn't it at least part of your job as an asset manager, as an investor, as a saver to look at this digital store of value? It's still working. Um hash rates are still going up. Um things like that, so it's still safe. So my idea is that at some point, Bitcoin has to play catch-up. And I don't know when that is going to happen but um I would say the world is developing in favor of Bitcoin um uh and not against it. So so then it then at some point that must be reflected in its price, right? >> I think so. Yeah. I mean I would say that the outlook remains bullish for 2026 just because at the end of the day you have all the dynamics that that you spoke to that are structural, right? And so you have a lot of debt particularly in the US that needs to be rebalanced. You have a new Fed chair coming in. You have Trump, like we talked about, Trump and new Fed chair want rates to be much lower. Um, you have geopolitical tension still heightened and rising. I don't think we're quite there yet in terms of investors appreciating the fact that Bitcoin is a riskoff asset that it's outside of the system, but I do think we'll get there at some point. So, it'll be more favorable in g in uh times of geopolitical attention, which I think you made the case will be for a while. So, I'm encouraged. I I do think um sentiment's still in the gutter as it relates to Bitcoin, but that's typically a sign to buy. >> Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Maybe one last thing. Um in my book, I look at 10 different major financial events, geopolitical events. Um and you mentioned that is is it a risk of asset? So, I can tell you it's in both cases the short run and the longer run. So, uh when things calm down a bit, it's the best performing asset class. So the whole thing it's it's like u an an an NASDAQ on on steroids. It's just plain wrong. So in all of these 10 major events and these are major um uh Bitcoin comes out on top. Now that does not mean it's not a risky asset. Uh but to uh put it away as being the most volatile and it always goes down the most when something major happens that's just that the objective data says that is not the case. Good. So, Yurun, thank you for your time today. Where would you like people to check out the new book? Um, what's what's the best place to hand them off to you? >> Yeah, we have a website great rebalancing.com and from there uh you can uh click on the link and it will take you to the Amazon uh at your location wherever you are in the world. Uh so, I think that is the that is the easiest easiest part. Just go to the website greatbalancing.com and uh from there you will know what to do. >> Well, thank you. It was great to have you back on the show. Okay. Yes. Thank you. >> Thanks for listening to this week's episode of the show. If you found the information valuable, please share the episode with a friend or leave a rating on your favorite podcast app. All the links we discussed in today's show will be in the show notes inside your podcast app. Before we finish, a quick reminder that Onra Media is forformational and entertainment purposes only, and nothing should be construed as investment or legal advice. Regardless of where you are in your Bitcoin journey, we'd love to hear from you. 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