Gold To $35,000? The Math Is Hard To Ignore | Josh Phair
May 14, 2026
Josh Phair, founder of Scottsdale Mint and CEO of the Wyoming Reserve, joins Onramp's The Last Trade to argue that gold could reach $35,000 per ounce based on the Fair-Sinclair ratio, a historical model that has correctly flagged two prior monetary inflection points. The case rests on sovereign accumulation running at the fastest pace in fifty years, the US's largest net export shifting to gold flowing to China for rare earths, and the structural breakdown of dollar-based trade settlement.
Josh Phair, founder of Scottsdale Mint and CEO of the Wyoming Reserve Opportunity Zone Fund, returns to The Last Trade to break down what he calls the metal wars: a quiet sovereign competition for hard assets that is reshaping how the largest economies settle accounts.
Gold has run from $3,300 to $4,700 per ounce in the nine months since Josh's last appearance, with an intra-period peak of $5,600. The conventional framework leaves the move largely unexplained against a backdrop of dollar strength, equity highs, and disinflationary signals. The monetary framework accounts for it. Central banks are accumulating at the fastest pace in roughly fifty years. China posted its largest monthly silver import in 20 years this past March. Poland is moving to 37% gold-backed reserves. The US's largest net export has shifted to gold flowing to China in exchange for rare earths.
The conversation covers the CLARITY Act's Senate markup and the banking lobby's 100-plus amendments threatening the legislation, the Tether seizure as the programmable-money tell, and Morgan Stanley's quietly-introduced 60/20/20 portfolio framework that allocates 20% to gold.
Josh also walks through Wyoming Reserve's selection over JP Morgan for the state of Wyoming's first physical gold mandate, the company's expansion to over 60,000 square feet of vault space in a foreign trade zone, and Scottsdale Mint's selection by Texas to produce the state's first gold and silver coins.
The central analytical anchor of the episode is the Phair-Sinclair ratio. Originally developed by Jim Sinclair in the 1970s, the ratio measures the gold price required to balance the reserve currency's gold holdings against its foreign debt. Sinclair used it to call gold's 1980 peak at $887.50 and its post-9/11 run to $1,650. The ratio is firing for a third time. The implied level, on the same historical math, is roughly $35,000 per ounce.
For institutional Bitcoin allocators, the parallel is direct. The same sophisticated capital driving sovereign gold accumulation is demanding trust-minimized custody, jurisdictional clarity, and independent verification across the digital asset stack. The incumbents who dismissed Bitcoin are now competing for the same clients holding both assets.
Whoever holds the most gold (and bitcoin) makes the rules.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Phair-Sinclair ratio and why does it imply $35,000 gold?
The Phair-Sinclair ratio, revitalized by Josh Phair from Jim Sinclair's original 1970s framework, measures the gold price required to balance the reserve currency's gold holdings against its foreign debt. The ratio correctly flagged gold's 1980 peak at $887.50 and its 2011 peak above $1,800. The third firing currently implies gold near $35,000 per ounce.
How fast are central banks accumulating gold in 2026?
Central bank gold accumulation is running at the fastest pace in roughly fifty years. China's People's Bank has been the longest continuous central bank buyer of gold, and in March 2026 China imported the largest monthly silver volume in 20 years. Poland has announced a move to 37% gold-backed reserves, one-third of which is held at the New York Fed.
How does gold accumulation connect to institutional Bitcoin demand?
The same sophisticated allocators driving sovereign gold accumulation are demanding trust-minimized custody for Bitcoin. Banks that previously dismissed Bitcoin, including JP Morgan, are now competing for clients holding both assets. Onramp's Multi-Institution Custody architecture serves the institutional demand for jurisdictional clarity and independent verification that mirrors the structure of physical gold vaulting.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.