The AI Trade Is Repeating the Dot-Com Cycle | Mark Yusko
June 18, 2026
Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Onramp to reframe the current market as a classic late-cycle setup, with a bubble forming around AI and SpaceX while bitcoin sits hated and on sale. Yusko argues that Elon Musk's $1 trillion xAI revenue tweet reads like textbook securities fraud, walks through how Intel's 1990 to 2000 round trip (up 20x, then down 87%) is repeating across semiconductors today, and explains why a SpaceX moon data center is physically impossible.
Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Jackson and Michael to reframe the current setup as a classic late-cycle bubble forming around AI and SpaceX while Bitcoin sits hated and on sale. He calls Elon's $1 trillion XAI revenue tweet a textbook securities fraud, shows how the Intel pattern from 1990 to 2000 (up 20x, then down 87%) is repeating in semiconductors today, and explains why a SpaceX moon data center is physically impossible. On the bullish side: DeepSeek doing what OpenAI and Anthropic do at 5 cents on the dollar, Metcalf's Law fair value for Bitcoin sitting around $125,000 (per Tim Peterson at N Squared Value), and Mark's specific October 5, 2026 cycle-bottom call with crypto spring to follow. Plus the three-bucket savings framework, why 99.5% of prediction-market accounts lose money, and why the 1986 Tax Act was a quiet heist on corporate pension funds.
🧠 Chapters
00:00 - Introduction and Consistency in Podcasting 02:56 - The Challenges of Building and Execution 08:37 - The Intersection of Sports and Market Trends 09:02 - Market Sentiment: AI, SpaceX, and Digital Assets 19:21 - The Bubble of Innovation and SpaceX's Promises 28:10 - Liquidity Cycles and Capital Allocation in Markets 40:55 - The Evolution of Networks and Value 51:46 - Understanding Market Dynamics: Investors vs. Traders vs. Gamblers 01:01:51 - The Importance of Long-Term Investment Strategies 01:09:30 - The Role of Innovation in Wealth Creation 01:17:52 - Final Thoughts on Investing and Gambling
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Mark Yusko?
Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. On The Last Trade he frames the current environment as a textbook late-cycle market, with speculative excess building around AI and SpaceX while bitcoin trades at depressed sentiment. His core argument is that the crowd is paying up for the most hyped stories at exactly the moment the hardest, most durable asset has gone on sale.
What is Mark Yusko's view on the AI bubble?
Yusko sees AI as the center of a classic late-cycle bubble, where narrative and capital are concentrating in a handful of names well past the point of rational pricing. He does not dispute that the underlying technology is real. His point is that real innovation and a financial bubble routinely coexist, and that valuations have detached from the economics of what these businesses actually produce.
How does the Intel 1990 to 2000 pattern apply to semiconductors today?
Yusko uses Intel as a template for what happens to a beloved chip leader at a cycle peak. Intel rose roughly 20x through the 1990s and then fell about 87% from its top. He argues the same round-trip pattern is setting up across today's semiconductor names, where the move up has been violent and the eventual drawdown could be just as severe once the cycle turns.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.