The Chart That Exposes The AI Trade
September 29, 2026
In this Final Settlement episode from Onramp Media, hosts Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson and Brian Cubellis discuss an Epoch AI chart showing the cost of a given level of AI performance falling about 47% a quarter since 2023. Michael's read is that cheap intelligence competes away profit, which puts the focus on what stays scarce, including bitcoin. This is editorial commentary, not investment advice.
Eight major AI models shipped in two weeks, and the hosts open with several reported data points: open-weight models carrying most of the tokens on Vercel's AI Gateway, an Oracle force majeure notice on a Stargate site, and Epoch AI's estimate that the cost of a given level of performance has fallen about 47% a quarter since 2023. Michael's read is that AI will compete away the profits it touches, which raises the question of what the scarce unit is in an abundant world. From there the three of them discuss Amazon blocking Meta's Muse while Shopify opens its merchants to it, Block bringing bitcoin Lightning payments to x402 for AI agents, the Open USD stablecoin consortium, the CFTC's call to prepare for mass tokenization, Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock's model portfolios on Ondo, Binance's reported $100 million stake in Circle, and Apollo's warning that agents could set off a bank run. The hosts' single point of failure of the week is the reported Bitget hack.
Chapters
00:00 - Eight AI models in two weeks: what the singularity looks like 03:53 - Open-weight models, Oracle's Stargate notice, and Jevons paradox 07:15 - Frontier versus open models, and why the harness holds the value 10:46 - Amazon blocks Muse, Shopify opens the door 16:57 - Why blocking bots fails, and why agents may raise prices 23:13 - Block brings Bitcoin Lightning to x402 for AI agents 26:26 - What if the ads of the agent internet are just money? 29:07 - Open USD: Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and Shopify 30:56 - Mass tokenization, from the CFTC to the ECB's Pontes 33:51 - Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock on Ondo, Binance into Circle 36:50 - Stablecoins as the onramp, and the agentic bank run 41:02 - If intelligence is free, where does alpha come from? 44:09 - Single point of failure of the week: the Bitget hack 48:35 - Russia tells investors to eat stablecoin freeze losses 50:16 - The Epoch AI chart: cheaper faster than any tech in history
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Epoch AI chart in this episode show?
Per Epoch AI's figures discussed at 50:16, the cost of a given level of AI performance has fallen about 47% a quarter since 2023. The hosts return to the chart after opening the show at 00:00.
What is Michael's view on AI and profits?
At 03:53 and 41:02, Michael argues that AI will compete away the profits it touches, and the hosts ask where alpha comes from if intelligence is free. It is the hosts' opinion, not a forecast or advice.
What does the episode say about bitcoin and AI agents?
At 23:13 the hosts discuss Block bringing bitcoin Lightning payments to x402 for AI agents, then ask at 26:26 whether the ads of the agent internet might simply be money.
Which stablecoin and tokenization stories does the episode cover?
From 29:07 to 36:50 the hosts cover the Open USD consortium, the CFTC's call to prepare for mass tokenization, Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock on Ondo, and Apollo's bank-run warning.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.