The Last Trade E074: Reunderwriting America with David Thayer

Jackson Mikalic (00:00.769) All right. Welcome back to the last trade. We got an exciting one for you this week. We have all time highs once again, and it might have something to do with our special guest who's joining us this week, David Thayer. David, want to hand it over to you in just a moment here to give a quick intro. I know you've been on the show previously. You're an advisor to the business. So we'd love to have you just give a quick intro and also want to just, for those who are not on video listening audio, we have my cohost, Michael Tanguma, and we have Brian Cabellus here, who's the Chief Strategy Officer at OnRamp. So the four of us are really excited to get into this recent price action. David, maybe before we pull up the chart and just be enamored by this weekly move that we're taking a look at, could you just share a little bit more about your background and maybe what led you to Bitcoin in a couple minutes? David Thayer (00:48.951) Sure, thanks Jackson, by the way, for in passing giving me credit for the Bitcoin pump. So I much appreciate that. By the way, everyone's welcome. But yeah, so David Thayer, currently an executive advisor at Blackstone. The background is that some years ago with some other colleagues, we launched a fund called Harvest, which was then later bought by Blackstone. And I should mention as well while we're on the topic that Brian Cubellis (00:57.328) You Michael (01:09.369) you David Thayer (01:17.303) Obviously I'm speaking in my own capacity and not Blackstone's for the remainder of the pod. yeah, so then was a partner of Blackstone for five years and stepped down a couple of years ago. I'm still with the firm now. And then, you know, sort of a lifelong libertarian, the Bitcoin phenomenon first came to light for me in 2010 actually, or maybe it's 2011. And literally it was trading at like a dollar 80 cents or so. And, but silly me, I thought it was kind of too complicated. And you know, in fairness, it was at the time to kind of buy some, not much of a techie and, and watched it, you know, go from there to all the way, all the way up until like 2020 when I finally took the plunge idiot that I am, but I'd been following it the whole time. It was always sort of a natural byproduct of, you know, our collective desire I think at least among fellow freedom lovers for an alternative to fiat currency and this finally seemed to be one that was going to work and given all the qualities and properties that we know make it work you know it's had staying power not surprisingly so it took a deep plunge a few years ago been really involved in the community ever since and one of things by the way that I should mention that that helped drive my interest in the orange coin was that Michael (02:17.236) you Michael (02:37.996) you David Thayer (02:43.007) you know long-time friends with Alex Gladstein have been with the Human Rights Foundation, big supporter of theirs really since their inception in 2005 and we've been communicating about it over the years and he had a lot to do with kind of pushing me over the edge so you know seeing from that perspective as well it obviously has human rights implications which is why I think it has you know it's so laughable when a lot of folks think that somehow Bitcoin is bad for humanity, bad for the environment, some of the other tropes that we've heard over time. So anyway, that's kind of my origin story. Michael (03:24.3) Yeah. Well, I mean, just to throw David on the spot, you know, this Trump election, were, I would love to hear about, pub key and, and, you know, I saw a couple of photos there and I saw you in the, in the background. don't know if you got a, a McDonald's burger, but we'd love to hear kind of how that went down in that, that, evening was. Cause I haven't really talked to anybody. know a couple of individuals that were there, but never talked about it afterwards. And obviously we've seen what's happened after. David Thayer (03:52.735) Yeah, it was a neat day. as it happens, I'm involved with travel venture partners and they were going to host a reception that evening anyway. And then I got a call later from Thomas Pocky, whom we all know who owns Pubkey, launched it. And he said, guess who's coming to Pubkey? And I said, sailor? He's like, nope, Trump. I'm like, what? And I was like, when is he coming? Because I want to be there. He's he's coming September 18th. I'm like, well, I'm already going to be there. And so it's this confluence of events where Trump was showing up. And then also there was this function later in the evening that TVP was hosting. So in this tiny little cramped dive bar, you had a bunch of people in there, meeting and greeting. the former president of the United States and the soon to be president. And, know, it was the standard kind of thing where we all had to be vetted before we went in and then we're standing around for two hours, you know, just standing and nobody's drinking because they weren't even serving beer. so finally he shows up. But thankfully, because of the close quarters, we were actually able to interact with the guy. And it was kind of fun to watch. And silly me, I didn't get pet or positioning, I could have stood anywhere. I'm like, crap, if I had known he's going to be there, I would have actually stood closer to him when he's transacting in Bitcoin for a hamburger. So anyway, it was great fun. Jackson Mikalic (05:33.266) Yeah, that was exciting to see and that was probably the one thing that I had serious FOMO about not being there. Don't have it frequently, but when I saw that Trump was in Pubkey, which is a bar that I love as well, it's a great community. That's quite an historic moment and to see Trump be the first president to ever complete a Bitcoin transaction, albeit he needed little bit of assistance, but don't we all on our first go around. David Thayer (06:00.279) Exactly. He kept talking about crypto by the way because he was also trying to pump his little Liberty mean coin or whatever it is. But there were plenty of people in the audience correcting him on the error of his ways. But yeah, it was a thrill. Brian Cubellis (06:04.718) Yeah, he likes to do that. Jackson Mikalic (06:14.603) Yeah. And well, it seems like he's surrounding himself with the right people that actually do understand Bitcoin. So maybe we should be talking about that now, because it's been a really exciting week since the election results. And I think the markets. don't think the markets have responded very positively to the news. think in part it's has something to do with just a lot of certainty around Trump being the president-elect with the popular vote in the electoral college as well. I think there was some uncertainty if it would be a contested election. So now I think that we know Trump is elected. We seem to have the red wave underway with the Senate flipping and the House holding. so Bitcoin has reacted extremely positively. Like before we had just hit record here, we were talking about this past Monday, Veterans Day, the 11th, Bitcoin moved from 80,000 to almost breaking through 90,000 in one day. a 10k daily candle that's something that we've never seen before. I don't think we've even seen anything close to that before. So let's pull up the chart here. We are recording at all time highs. thought, I did have a feeling that with David coming on the podcast, we'd be breaking through 90k and I was certainly right about it. So I guess David, I'll also take credit for that with you there. But if we pull up the chart, so we're at 91. Michael (07:37.607) Switch. Jackson Mikalic (07:41.815) 743, so almost $92,000 per Bitcoin. This is the weekly chart here, so you can see that we're up about $18,000 in the past week, which is about a 25 % price gain. Last week we flipped, I believe it was Metta that Bitcoin flipped to be the ninth largest asset. This week, Silver was flipped, Bitcoin's the eighth largest asset, and now that we're recording, it is now the seventh largest asset in the world, I believe, flipping or... Michael (07:53.681) Thanks Jackson Mikalic (08:09.587) surpassing Saudi Aramco. So we're at, I think, $1.8 trillion or so in change as a market cap. Gentlemen, what do we think about this? Brian Cubellis (08:18.421) I'm glad you brought up that the rankings of top assets because I think we can't can't overstate the potential mimetic power of that ranking over like this this bull market in the sense that as you mentioned it just past Saudi Aramco I think there's four or five other companies ahead of it still in terms of market cap and then obviously gold is is number one in terms of largest asset in the world. So I think like just as we sort of tick past these, because I think the dollar per Bitcoin thresholds for the next ones are like range from 95 to like 170. So like, if that happens, we're gonna tick past these other companies and then we're gonna be number two, right behind gold. And I think that'll flip in some people's brains or just get them to reconsider like, it actually is competing with gold. And I think it's literally just that ranking, that chart that'll incept that into the minds of people who hadn't been thinking that that's a real comparison to be making. And I think as we just tick past those other companies, it's gonna become more and more real and there's obvious sort of mimetic power behind that. Michael (09:34.715) that you were referring to. So we've all spent some time with in the Middle East and they love like everyone to compete. And I thought you were referring to Saudi Aramco maybe starting to stack some Bitcoin on their balance sheet because they may not like being surpassed by Bitcoin and the only way that you're going to help face it is as we've seen with Saylor just put it on your balance sheet. So that's going to be an interesting dynamic play out. Brian Cubellis (09:46.448) Well that too. Right. Right. David Thayer (09:59.657) Is that what's happening? mean, one of the theses circulating is that we're being front run as Trump has announced this strategic Bitcoin reserve together with Senator Loomis. So would you agree with that as having been at least one of the underlying causes for the current pump? Brian Cubellis (10:21.905) I would think it has to be. It is entirely logical that other nations would try to front run this thing that we announced months ago, the bill was put forth months ago. Now that Trump's won, it's much more of a potential reality, particularly because red sweep across the House and the Senate, they actually might be able to get this through. I would be more surprised if people weren't trying to front run it at the nation state level. Michael (10:22.151) think it's been a little... Yeah. Michael (10:49.367) Yeah. I it also goes back to the notion of like, was saying, it's going to be a little bit from our Philadelphia friends on the call, like a blasphemous, but being a Texan, you kind of think of Texas first and you the US and where all this stuff that's happened over the past 20 years, you kind of just feel the millennial disenfranchised, right? And sitting back and seeing the rhetoric and what Trump stood for. It's like, we are the greatest, not only the country, but the greatest startup in the world, right? We effectively have come from nothing to lead in all of these respects. And we've kind of taken a back seat the past call it 10 years, not to say from innovation, but countries are starting to be run like startups. And the Middle East has an example, the UAE, Bahrain, there's these countries. And well, what does a startup do? They counter position and they do things that the incumbents can't do. And one of them has been mining Bitcoin heavily. And it's been rumored without knowing for certain that they've been actually mining with nuclear in certain. certain countries. And that's kind of would be the reason for some of the hash rate increase. I don't know that for certain, but either way, you would posit that then they've also been accumulating. We've known like the high net worth, the sovereigns independently have been accumulating, but now the countries themselves. And I saw some of to your point, David, that it was potentially like top five holder now is a country or that is like there's this new top five holder that's out there. So you can't build that position because Trump announced, right? You built that position for months, if not years. But to Brian's point, it makes sense, right? This is just always going to play out this way because you might want to get some in case it catches on. David Thayer (12:26.527) Right. Well, it's also, you know, if Michael, what you say is true, it would seem that it is in fact the case that, you know, we're all kind of working in parallel, which only validates the thesis yet again. If several other countries have already recognized the validity of mining and holding Bitcoin, then, know, front running or not, that just means several other sovereigns are kind of moving the same direction as we are. And, you know, more power to it. Jackson Mikalic (12:27.592) Yep. Jackson Mikalic (12:57.023) Yeah, that was eye-opening, the first trip that we had out there this year to the Middle East. In February, we went out. There was a Bitcoin-only conference in Dubai, and we really were out there to do some fact-finding and information gathering as it relates to just the Gulf region and what Bitcoin adoption looks like there. And I was pleasantly surprised to see that, to Michael's point, how forward-thinking these countries are. I I knew it just from observing afar, but actually being boots on the ground there, and getting to figure out that, and this is all public information, but sovereign wealth funds like ADQ, which is in Abu Dhabi, have venture arms that are funding Bitcoin custody and infrastructure companies. They're funding Bitcoin mining. In part, this could be particularly Gulf countries front running the strategic reserve now that we have certainty with Trump being the president-elect. But in part, too, these countries have been forward thinking for a while. They've been allocating to this space for several years now. And this is all kind of the culmination, I think, say, a sovereign nation competing at a game theoretical sense. So now that the strategic reserve is on the table, Michael (13:45.734) you Jackson Mikalic (14:10.461) If you give some credit to Polymarket, it's like a 35 or 40 % chance of happening. And that would allow the Bitcoin, the U.S. Treasury to accumulate a million Bitcoin in a matter of, I believe, five years, so about 200,000 Bitcoin per year. So you have to imagine that with the radical shift from a Michael (14:19.446) you Jackson Mikalic (14:31.933) administration and government in the US regulatory bodies that have been very antagonistic to Bitcoin in the broader crypto space to now having this certainty and having support and pro Bitcoin folks being likely appointed to leadership positions. You have to think that these countries that have already been forward thinking and have been implementing, let's say allocations to the space through companies are now probably becoming more serious about adding to their balance sheets as well. Michael (14:42.012) It's good. David Thayer (15:00.823) What's cool is that... I'm sorry, go ahead. Michael (15:01.166) Yeah. No, I was just, just on that note. this was shared with me last night. It was from Grant McCarty who runs the Bitcoin Policy Institute. says, can you guess which member of Trump's cabinet is pushing Charlie for strategic reserve? It's not the person you expect. And we're kind of debating, you know, who, who it might be. And I don't, I'm curious. Brian Cubellis (15:22.159) It could be like five different people, though. There's so many Bitcoin advocates in his circle at this point. Michael (15:28.701) Well, I think the kicker or the hint, and I don't know, I'm just referencing like, is that he says it's the person you least expect. So I didn't know if you guys had any thoughts on somebody that would not be the, cause that's kind of bullish, right? In the sense like there's a lot of people that are positive, but now there's others that aren't, or maybe dissenters now interested. David Thayer (15:49.205) Yeah, I'd have to think of that for a second, but it actually relates, Michael, to something I was about to say, which is that I like your metaphor for country as startup or company, because yeah, we were and I think will be the ultimate startup in the world. But I think we migrated away from that for a time. We became more of a sort of an ossified country. And I really do have hope with this new administration, given that Trump has surrounded himself with, it seems to me, not only Bitcoin friendly folks, but people who are innovation forward, that this could be sort of a new birth of freedom for the country, let's hope. And specific to your point just now, Yeah, so there's Vivek, there's RFK, Elon, all of whom are big fans of the space. even those voices alone would, I think, push them in this direction. Not to mention some of the other people are whispering in his ear, like Cynthia Lummis and so forth. But I don't know, what do you guys think? Who's the unexpected player who's nudging us in this direction? Brian Cubellis (17:08.144) I'm not sure. Michael, Michael, do you have thoughts? Michael (17:08.319) Well, I don't, I'm not as familiar with like the cabinet and who would be influential there. But to your point, David, about it truly feels like a, and I hope we're right. Like I think everyone's pretty positive on our side about like a real Renaissance. I think we were talking maybe before we started about, you know, the vilification of Bitcoin holders. And I think that could have been or would have been true if, if, you know, somebody else would have won instead of Trump, because now the narrative is like, You know, the notion of all the things that the media said and all the spend, you know, that we knew that was going in that that was just factually incorrect and was not true. Could have been weaponized for against this. now, like there is this alternative media. There's I think yesterday, again, I don't have enough time to fact check all these, I imagine they're true. Like that CNN is really seeing a bunch of people because like ratings are down. It's like this notion of like they're almost like it's being drained out that that a level of. of amplification and with that comes media like this and the other stuff, guess it was rumored also that Saylor is going to go talk on Joe Rogan. It's like, if you get the truth out there, it effectively allows you to say that this helps everyone. It doesn't just help the people that adopted it early because you're able, like all the things that are Bitcoin's value prop. So anyway, that's part of that Renaissance thesis that we're just going to be able to get the truth out there and the truth is on our side with all of this stuff when it comes to. People just need a better form of money to protect their wealth. Brian Cubellis (18:36.729) Something related to that, Michael, that I've been thinking through. It's not only like alternative media on the rise, but like what occurred last week, Trump winning the election in the fashion that he did, sort of solidifies the role of alternative media and really almost condemns traditional media to an extent. And then the other parallel to that is like, I don't know about you guys, but on election night, I was watching the Bitcoin price and Polymarket. Like I wasn't necessarily, I had CNN and Fox on, but I was really watching Polymarket, these, these, you know, free and open markets. I'm curious if you guys have thoughts on, cause Polymarket's interesting, right? It's like, you know, there isn't like massive volume there. It's technically illegal in the U S so like who's really using this. But I mean, by and large, like they were far more accurate than any pollster. any traditional media outlet. And then also just like Bitcoin's price ripping as literally as votes were counted, just like ticking up as a new batch of votes came in and it looked more likely that Trump would win, Bitcoin would go up. it's just again, like similar dynamic of this referendum on traditional media and really just like, no, let's just use free and open markets, free and open media. And that's how we get the, you know, the most accurate, truthful information. Jackson Mikalic (20:06.632) Yeah, well, quick anecdote on my end was election night. I was watching the Bitcoin price and I get some flack internally for being the person who goes to bed earlier on the team. So so the Bitcoin price was ripping around like 10 p.m. and I was like, you know, Trump's going to win. I'm going to go to bed now. And I was right. mean, Bitcoin is the leading indicator for not only. geopolitical news, market news, economic data. But now we're seeing, Brian, to your point, it's really interesting to see that this free and open market, global market that is Bitcoin, 24-7 liquidity is able to shed some light or potentially even be a kind of a leading indicator for unrelated, or it is still related to markets, but it's not directly related to markets. So I thought that was fascinating. And that for me, I was like, you know, I think Trump's going to win just based on the Bitcoin price going up. Michael (20:58.924) Yeah. David Thayer (21:00.093) And well, I was also going to say that, you know, I remember having this conversation, believe it or not, all the way back in 2004 with somebody because there were betting markets back then too. And it was clear even then that the betting markets were the place to be because people actually have money on the line as we know. And therefore, they're... They're more reliable for that reason, but they're also crowd sourced and therefore more reliable. There's a great book written by a guy who does not actually embrace free markets called The Wisdom of Crowds. And he talks about as a quick example that if you go to say, I think he opens the book with this, if you go to a country fair and you're asked to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar or the weight of a cow or something, most of the guesses are wrong. But the amazing thing is that the average of the guesses is almost always exactly spot on. And that's crowdsourcing in a nutshell, right? So that's also why markets work and polls don't. The polls too can be biased and so forth. And it's why Bitcoin works as well. It's decentralized and it's a bit of a voting machine. We are voting in favor of a more reliable store of value in addition to all its other laudable functions. But I think currently that's how people correctly view it as digital gold. The people on this call know that it has other functions too. They're going to be pretty cool to see. Yeah, I think the two are kind of operating parallel, which is why in part, Jackson, we saw them kind of moving in the same direction that evening. Michael (22:50.244) Yeah, it's a fascinating thing. A lot of people will say it's the last free market on earth, the Bitcoin market, and that it's this canary in the coal line, as Jackson was referencing. And we saw this, I remember I was actually out in the UAE when, I don't even know, it this year, how many times has there been Israel and Iranian conflict, but it was one of the nights where they started striking them and the price was just nuking. I think even before maybe, And it's almost like the synthesized version of the internet, right? Cause the internet, have to like go to your point and get the aggregate, like the, get the aggregate who's voting on the jelly bean, who's voting on the election. You start to get the sentiment, you can get close. But then to the point of that night, it was like, it broke out of 79, I guess. I don't even remember. No, 69. Like, yeah. Cause it was 68, 69. And then it just kind of took off. And the rest of the evening, you kind of saw it just moving away. And, and, and that was like, it was almost like, leading indicator and then polymarket was like following behind it, which is fascinating to watch. David Thayer (23:48.595) It's a, it is like a sniffing machine, right? I mean, I remember this is a while ago, but when the Fed was claiming that they were reducing their balance sheet, know, Bitcoin was still pumping for a time. This is, you know, post 2022 and And you know, it's a measure of global liquidity, so you can only look at the Fed. But still, I remember thinking, like, there is another way that liquidity is entering the market. How do we know that? Because Bitcoin is telling us that. And I still think that it's like a really reliable indicator of those sorts of geopolitical movements. Jackson Mikalic (24:28.14) Yeah, so speaking of free markets and just, let's say, capitalism, maybe less crony capitalism in the United States, why don't we shift focus to the Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE. I'm really, there's a lot of things that we could talk about. It ties into what you guys were discussing earlier around the US. Michael (24:42.128) So. Jackson Mikalic (24:53.153) being kind of like a startup nation and now having people in Trump's cabinet that are not creatures of the swamp, but are entrepreneurs and people who have built very successful businesses and know how to manage a business's balance sheet and make capital allocation decisions. What are the implications of more people in office and within the cabinet that have these backgrounds for the U.S. economy? mean, there's plenty of directions to go into some of the things around Bitcoin policy, energy market deregulation, maybe potential tax incentives. How do you think about the fiscal situation? Like if anyone wants to just jump on that, there's certainly plenty of directions we could go in. David Thayer (25:40.289) Well, I'll just dive right in. I remember, and I'm the only guy on the call who remembers this, but back in the 80s, Reagan appointed a guy whose name I think was Gore, it might've been Grace, who later founded something called Citizens Against Government Waste, and his idea was to come in and start cutting government waste. And now we have to recognize it's a big old sort of blob, big marshmallow, and it's gonna be really difficult, I think, to... to pare down these expenses. Once a government program, Reagan talked about this too, but once a government program's instituted, it's like so impossible to kind of rip that bandaid off. And, know, I'm hopeful though, having said that, that this new, more entrepreneurial spirit within the... the government will at least be able to kind of reverse course in some of the more egregious ways that we've seen kind of unfold in the last several years. I mean, even just getting us back to a budget like from 2020 would be a massive advancement. the one final thing I'll say about Doge is that I was just mentioning somebody that I'm like, One degree separation away from some of the folks who are being pointed to these positions. And I don't know a lot of them personally, but. Again, we have lots of mutual friends. And that's what gives me hope. And it also leads me to believe that one of these people may be the ones who are Michael behind this Bitcoin friendly stance that President Trump's taking. But I only mention it because I was thinking about reaching out to the vacuum. I actually do know a little bit. And even later today, volunteering to help with Doge and to see where that goes. So if he accepts my offer, then I'll keep you posted. Brian Cubellis (27:31.162) That's amazing. Michael (27:32.537) Yeah, I mean, I think it's exciting. think like we've talked about this before, there's just levels of fat, right, that exists across a fiat system. Because if your unit is always moving, well, it's hard to be efficient with it. So even the most efficiently run startups are still having the wrong measurement stick. And then once you get to the government, it just gets insane, right, with the amount of bloat. And so there's a lot of levels that I think this efficiency will or the efficiency will get to, but I think the end state, is the real like Renaissance, the real version is like, and Bailey has said this a while ago, was like the real party starts when the dollar ends because like you get to the tightest unit. Obviously it'll be a while, but the notion of imagine like the government efficiencies metric or KPI, Brian and I were talking about this is like, you know, a lot of people talk sats per share and all this stuff. It's like, well, It's a financialization metric. Ultimately, right now, it's like maybe in a future world where it's just like amount of equity a company has versus amount of Bitcoin. But right now it's like there's no productivity, real economic productivity happening from record strategy. It's financialization. But the real metric should be employee Bitcoin per employee, like Bitcoin per like Bitcoin, you know, that's an assign efficiency. And so you can imagine, you know, again, it's still early, but a Department of Government Efficiency having that. Now that's an interesting metric and that will happen just because if Bitcoin becomes a strategic reserve asset and people start to hold it, it permeates their culture. We all know as an individual what happens when you start to adopt a form of money that appreciates in value, well, you just are more discerning with how you spend and you think more critically. And that's going to effectively permeate to the highest levels because that's just how the world works. It's how it always did. And then we moved away from it. So I think that's what's really exciting is once all these like narratives and things. And I guess the last point is it's really smart, I forgot who tweeted this about like the amount of wealth that gets brought back to the country with Bitcoin's price, or not brought back, but increases because the majority or a large percentage of Bitcoin sits in the United States. Right? So by you pump the bags three, four X, the amount of, know, trillions of dollars that are effectively here and what you can do with that helps to offset those liabilities on the debt side to get us back to where we want to be. David Thayer (29:43.959) Well, it needs to be like a pincer movement. I was just having this conversation with somebody else in that I think one of the things that can get us out of this pickle too when it comes to our fiscal situation is productivity gains. And my fear though is that we've already seen that movie play out these last say 20, 30 years, because we had a whole bunch of. Jackson Mikalic (29:44.018) Yeah. David Thayer (30:10.123) technological revolutions that I think we tend to take for granted, again, I'm old enough to remember the PC revolution and the internet revolution and the mobile revolution. Now we're arguably witnessing an AI revolution. And you know, this is not typical in history. I mean, we're living through a special time right now. But, and Jeff Booth talks about this too, but I've long observed that, you know, the Fed essentially stole that from us. What we should have seen was prices plummeting. as they did during the 19th century when we had a similar sort of revolutionary period technologically. And that's good by the way. We were talking about this earlier this morning. It's deflation good. This runs exactly counter to the narrative in Keynesian land which dominates economics that deflation is bad. And deflation's great. Who doesn't want lower prices for crying out loud? And so we should have seen mass deflation, as Jeff Booth has said so eloquently. And we did. So the Fed stole that. So if we see a productivity gains, my hope is that we'll have intelligent people in office, in Congress in particular, who don't steal that from us and allow prices to plummet. And we can all benefit from a lower cost of living. Wow, come on. Michael (31:27.391) I'm just gonna bring this up in the middle just so nobody don't get distracted. We're just currently looking at the price at $92,500. But David, yeah, that's spot on. Let's go back to the teal euphemism of we were promised flying cars. Was it flying cars and whatever and all we got was 240 characters. Like we should have been in the Renaissance 30 years ago and we're just barely getting there, but better late than never. Brian Cubellis (31:30.288) You David Thayer (31:33.941) Too late, artists attracted. Brian Cubellis (31:38.807) You David Thayer (31:47.974) Great. Yeah, that's right. That's exactly right. Brian Cubellis (31:52.041) But back to the startup analogy, it is just wildly encouraging in the sense that this is basically what sounds like Doge and Elon and Vivek and potentially others, maybe even David, are going to be focused on is really re-underwriting the country. You're re-underwriting the startup and you're saying, where's the fat? Vivek has talked about this. Jackson Mikalic (31:52.258) How? Brian Cubellis (32:18.809) multiple times around like, and it's the same thing that Elon did at Twitter, right? He fired what, 80 % of the staff? in my opinion, like Twitter is better than it ever was, particularly in terms of like actual, not censoring people and suppressing information, obviously, but it also works well and they didn't need all those people clearly. And so it's the same idea. And frankly, like I never thought I would see something like this actually be put into motion in my lifetime in the sense that like, I'm very, maybe too optimistic, but I think like, we have a real shot at gutting a lot of the bureaucracy that has allowed this startup to stagnate, arguably, right? And so it's a very unique opportunity. the fact that if you just think about like, what the Democrats and traditional media have have sort of purported about Elon over the past year, two years. It's insane. Like this guy is, you know, say what you want about him, but he's wildly successful entrepreneur and clearly has a knack for, you know, getting more efficient at a business level. And like you saying, Michael, like the country is a business to an extent and the past several decades, I think we've gotten fat and complacent and there's a lot of room for work to be done. it's just very encouraging that we have seemingly like the perfect minds on this. so credit to Trump and his team for like putting this coalition together and getting people on board to really go after something that again, like I never thought I'd see something like this actually come to fruition. Jackson Mikalic (34:15.288) One thing that relates to both of your points, Brian and David, that I've been trying to grapple with is, so David, you mentioned deflation is good. It's natural for productive economies. But we also on the flip side have about $36 trillion of federal debt. There's hundreds of trillions of unfunded liabilities. So there still is a... There still is a great incentive for the U.S. government to want to inflate prices because how else do you pay off the debt without insane productivity gains, some of which could be potentially achieved by the technologies we're discussing. But I'm trying to grapple with the idea that so Bitcoin in part, obviously not solely, but is driven by liquidity and debasement and compounding debt. So how does a more fiscally responsible government potentially impact the Bitcoin price? Michael (35:16.873) Well, I mean, they can't stop printing is a problem. There's too much debt and not enough dollars. So like the structural problems, there is deflation in any loan that exists because just companies don't bat a hundred. And so they won't be made whole. And so you ultimately always have to print dollars. It's not enough. There's not enough of them that exists. It's like the liquidity doesn't just dry up. You can offset the deficits of like what, you know, to this Doge side, but you still have the liabilities that exist. David Thayer (35:40.407) Well, sorry. David Thayer (35:48.535) And that's what's so dangerous and totally underestimated is these unfunded liabilities when it comes to the promises we idiotically made to the Ponzi scheme. As part of the Ponzi scheme, otherwise known as Social Security, where the people paying into the system are immediately underwriting those who are collecting those funds. There's no kind of fund that's going to ultimately be tapped. to pay future recipients of social security and other welfare programs. So, you know, as you guys probably know, it's envisioned to flip. We're not going to have enough workers to pay people who are then retired in the early 30s. So yeah, I mean no matter how efficient we are without radical change what I don't see as Politically palatable even with this administration We're going to run into a real serious problem in the early 30s as currently projected So that's point number one and then also as far as bitcoins price concern You know, all right. What if the US House gets its or the the US? Fiscal house gets its house in order we still have the rest of the world who are not themselves fiscally responsible. Just look at Europe, let alone developing nations. So wherever fiscal irresponsibility prevails, think is where we're going to see the need for Bitcoin as a secure source of value. And I think therefore the price just continues to go up. Michael (37:07.479) you Jackson Mikalic (37:27.344) Yeah. And one thing that I've been thinking about as well is so there's these realities of the interest expense. So even though, you know, we're not officially in a recession and asset prices across the board are at all time highs, we're still seeing the Federal Reserve have more accommodative monetary policy with the rate cut last week and, you know, more forecasted in the future. And that's just because fundamentally we're at about a trillion dollars in interest expense. It's the second largest line item. Michael (37:27.653) Yeah, I think. Jackson Mikalic (37:57.292) behind healthcare spending. So even if there is more fiscal responsibility as it relates to managing the government, getting rid of waste, cutting the fat, the reality is that lower interest rates are going to be stimulative to the economy and to asset prices. So that's another dynamic as well. I think a play that will continue to be accretive to Bitcoin, equities, housing, etc. And I also agree with the idea. mean, fundamentally Bitcoin Michael (38:23.361) you Jackson Mikalic (38:26.811) like we said at the start of this call is that it's an alternative to fiat currency. So governments being more. responsible with how they manage their budgets doesn't make Bitcoin irrelevant. It's still the only way that you can send money around the world instantly with final settlement. It's still the best store of value that story's not going to change for the next decade just because the U.S. may be successful in, you know, reducing some of the deficit spending. So totally agree. mean, it is still a global phenomenon and also Like we said earlier in this call, we're starting to see what we think is sovereign nations competing for Bitcoin. So that's only going to ramp up as well. So maybe we'll see this maturity in Bitcoin where the first 15 years is primarily driven by excess liquidity in the market, deficit spending. 2020 obviously being a big surge of monetary and fiscal policy. Maybe we see Bitcoin mature into that still drives the price, but maybe it's not as impactful because now we have much larger balance sheets stepping in. We're seeing more integration of Bitcoin into businesses, both public and private. So I think it'll be interesting to see how the market evolves over the next decade. It might look very different than the first. David Thayer (39:48.791) degree and by the way you know this is parenthetical but I should mention it anyway yeah partly because I speak from personal experience for anyone who's listening you know it's not too late like the the best years are ahead of us and you know I myself had to watch it go from like a dollar to 20,000 bucks and I still took the plunge and of course I don't regret it and And yeah, my fear is that people like, well, I missed the move. That's what I told myself for years. I thought when it went from like a dollar to a hundred bucks, like, I missed the move. we have so far yet to go. And I think there are lots of reasons to be fans of Bitcoin, not least the price appreciation, but it's also a great, as mentioned earlier, human rights tool. I would do it for that reason alone. Brian Cubellis (40:30.96) You David Thayer (40:48.74) But beyond that, it has lots of different current and potential uses and therefore it's worth investing in the network for that reason as well. But it's great to have found an investment where you do feel like, and it's going to sound trite to say it, but I'll say it anyway, you can do good and do well at the same time. I think we're doing good for humanity, but also thankfully we're going to be doing well. Michael (41:10.593) Thanks. David Thayer (41:14.359) And I mentioned this at a recent, well, in Nashville, the HRF Fund gathering. It like, think we're also collectively, long-time Bitcoiners going to have to prepare ourselves for future wealth, frankly, and how we're going to allocate it prudently, both in our own lives, but then how are we going to give back to humanity? This is a total tangent now. I might as well go there. Do you guys follow a... Michael (41:21.634) Thanks. Michael (41:32.924) Thanks. David Thayer (41:42.781) Stack Hotler, the guy in Switzerland on Twitter, he's great. He talks a bit about this too. So better to predict now how we might allocate that wealth in the future. Michael (41:54.108) David Thayer (41:55.221) than to suddenly find ourselves like lottery winners and blowing it in stupid ways. So anyway, while I have this box, I would just encourage everybody to also think about humanity more broadly. so, know, HRF comes up, but Students for Liberty is really involved in the space Atlas network. know, freedom friendly organizations to which we can maybe plant some seeds and see maybe freedom flourish elsewhere as a result. Michael (42:22.628) Yeah, I mean, that's the you hit the nail on head on like the meta version of like somebody there's this undertone that individuals that got in early kind of lose their mind effectively, right? Like money, money doesn't change you just makes you it's an amplification of who you are, right? That's where like, you know, capital raising, if you're an efficient company, you're just going to spend more money more efficiently. And that's where you know, it's just these are things that have always existed. And I think we forgot about And to your point, think there's a real meta thing that happens. I've been saying this recently, but it ties into your point of like, lot of people wish they got in at that dollar. It's like, you really don't because you don't want that. Like if you got it too early and you didn't earn it, you didn't go through like the time, right? The hodl that like drawn down, then you don't really know what you were holding. You had to like harden that. So when the price gets to this and it's going go much higher, you're more, you're, you're as discerning as ever. You remember all of that. to get there. It's just the same thing with like building wealth versus, you know, winning the lottery and help people generally lose it. So I think that that's kind of a part of that. But then the other part is the it sounded trite when sailor came out and had the hope.com and now like I really just visually get it in the sense that not only is it hope like from a Renaissance from a country perspective, but we're talking with an individual to come on. That was coming from like the private banking side younger guy, I think a little younger than Jackson. where he's kind of, he was referencing himself how he's stuck in this interesting spot because his cohort is like hopeless, right? They're like, we're never gonna get a house. We got the raw end of the stick, right? And then the other side is like, the boomers are just like, rugging, just complete rug. you know, it's been crazy to see, cause I never really felt it. then just like, when I get in conversations with, you know, there's like, it's all crazy. It's like, well, man, but anyway. this individual is like, you know, I'm kind of in a weird spot because I have like, you know, I'm storing my value. see the vision. I see how this can bring back being able to buy a home, have children, all of those things. And so to your point, David's like, nobody's missing the boat. This just lets everyone get back to the level playing field of working, producing value, having meritocracy, holding it in a form of money that appreciates. And then you can go back to the things you were supposed to do versus the past X number 30 plus years, whatever it is. Michael (44:39.456) People who've just been hopeless and we've seen this in society with all the crazy things that have been happening. Jackson Mikalic (44:44.515) Yeah, there's a ton of productivity gains to be had as well just from people having a better way to preserve their wealth and not having to become a fund manager for their personal finances. Like that's something that we'll continue to see play out over the next several decades. David Thayer (44:45.964) Yep. Jackson Mikalic (45:01.113) It gives me great peace of mind to just know that I can have a weekly DCA. I can watch the Bitcoin price and if it corrects, I can do a lump sum purchase. I know that I, well, part of it is having secure custody, but I know that that will be there for me over the long term. And Michael, to your point, mean... So I'm on the younger side of millennials and my cohorts, like late twenties, thirties, a lot of these people are in the same position where they don't really seem to get it yet just in terms of how Bitcoin can be a way to, it's almost like a generational reckoning in the sense that you have this opportunity to level the playing field a bit, as you mentioned. And I don't know where I'd be without Bitcoin because I really don't think, you know, buying into Like I'm in the Philadelphia area and David, you know that home prices here have, like they have in many parts of the country, have gone up astronomically. And if I wanted to buy a starter home outside of Philadelphia, it's probably going to be, depending on what I want, $600,000 to $800,000. And you look at the mortgage payment on that and it's like $4,000 a month, $5,000 a month. There's really no way without... Michael (46:11.167) you Jackson Mikalic (46:14.215) I guess being a very high earner or building your business and being very successful, there's almost no way you could afford the same level or quality of life that your parents could have without Bitcoin. So, I mean, that's how I view it is this is just a great opportunity for people who, you know, are in this general demographic as millennials. And to your point, David, it is still very early. It's hard. The Bitcoin price is such a hard unit bias because you look at $92,000 per Bitcoin and It's easy to think. well, I should have gotten five years ago or I should have started buying two years ago. And of course Maybe you should have but at the same time it's like well now is the present moment Bitcoin is still just this global asset competing is you know, Jesse writes a lot about 900 trillion dollars of wealth. We're a little shy of two trillion now and When you see that price, it's it seems high but when you realize that this is a global asset store value payments network, you start to recognize that, you know, that the ceiling for Bitcoin is in five or $10 trillion. It's hundreds of trillions, most likely, if things play out as we expect. And then the flip side of it is David, you came across Bitcoin when You said it was about a dollar, right? And maybe what if you did end up buying some? Well, you probably would have gotten rugged at some point. Like I speak to people very frequently who made their first Bitcoin purchase in 2013, but very few of them actually held from 2013 until 2024. A lot of them, you know, thought that they hit a big when the price went from a couple hundred dollars to a couple thousand and some of them sold their position because they still didn't understand what they owned. Others lost. Michael (47:33.957) Okay. Brian Cubellis (47:34.96) You David Thayer (47:35.445) Yeah, that's true. Jackson Mikalic (47:57.989) seed phrases along the way. Others ended up on exchanges that failed. So Bitcoin, yes, it's possible that Bitcoin won't have a 100 % CAGR for the next 20 years, but it might have a 20 or 30 or 40 % CAGR. And what other asset class are you going to find that offers that level of return? Hopefully that's helpful for some folks that are listening that may be a little bit newer to the space and still trying to figure out how to approach this from their personal balance sheet. Brian Cubellis (48:28.751) Yeah, it's funny. I get that question here and there around like, I too late? Should I be smashed buying at all time highs? And I'm like, yes, you should always be buying Bitcoin. No one's ever lost money buying the top. Sailor's buying the top forever. And the other reality is I always send, if someone asks a question along those lines, I either send them Jesse's global asset landscape chart or just give them their percentage. Like what is Bitcoin out of the 900 trillion today? and just let them know like, you this thing is the best performing asset ever and it's still tiny. So not, you're not too late. I'm curious though, have you guys been getting a ton of texts over the past week or so? David, I'm curious like in your network, in your circles, do you have any skeptics who've reached out over the past week to say, hey, can we talk about that Bitcoin thing again? Michael (49:04.675) Thank David Thayer (49:20.64) Yeah. David Thayer (49:25.207) I would love to say yes, but you know, it's amazing to me the extent to which individuals, also certain companies I know are, you know, maybe not resistant, but just indifferent to these, you know, Bitcoin generally, but also even just the recent price movements, which, you know, again, reinforces this notion that, you know, we're still very early. And there's one thing I do want to mention, and then we can get back to your question, Brian, which is that... You know, I'm a believer in it. I went to Chicago for my MBA and this theory kind of originated there. you know, I'm believer in the weak market, the weak form free market hypothesis, which is to say, prices are generally correct. Yes, there can be dislocations as we are self-sull in like November 22 driven by FTX and others. And that was kind of an exogenous sort of. factor that drove prices down. yes, of course, in all markets, there are going to be temporary dislocations, but price discovery brings those, in this case, asset prices back up, which is exactly what we've seen. mention it because like, OK, so Bitcoin is now trading at 92 grand. But that's what it's worth. I mean, it's almost like a tautology, but it's true. And so, yes, you're getting in later, but it's also safer now. When you were buying it, like $100 for all the reasons Jackson articulated, it was a really risky, exceedingly risky asset. I had a conversation with Marty Bent here in Philadelphia, maybe last year, two years ago. And Bitcoin might have been trading at like 30 grand back then. I totally forget the timing. Michael (51:01.425) you David Thayer (51:15.255) You know, he's been in the space for a long time, as a lot of us have. And he said, I think he first entered the space in 2013, he said, Bitcoin's never been cheaper. I was like, what? He's like, yeah, like there was so much uncertainty back then. And the one shoe that yet to drop back then when we were having this conversation is, you know, the, the SEC was still engaging in certain regulation by enforcement. Nobody knew the rules of the game. And then, you know, they'd be caught out and, and you get in trouble. The SEC, well, now we have that regulatory clarity. We have some of it already established in the last year or so, but it seems like we really are going to have clarity going forward. So that's why the price is pumping. Michael (51:45.192) Thank David Thayer (51:54.873) and it's only fair. But now I feel like the landscape is pretty wide open. I don't see what other risks there are. Of course, there are going to be sort of marginal risks that are in danger any asset class, but I think right now it's like an open field. So, bigger than the tangent, Brian, but I think it opens up a broader discussion. Michael (52:09.507) Yeah, I mean Michael (52:14.656) I that's, think, I find just saying this often, I think it's because we're so close to this space that risk adjusted. That's what effectively Mark Marty was saying, like risk adjusted. There's never been a better time because when you see all the infrastructure and all the regulation and people stepping in behind the scenes before it's public, you know, you're like, holy crap, I can't believe it's still only this price, right? Because if the price was 250K, like what would have to change other than, you know, there's nothing much that needs to change or would change. But I do think the other side of this coin of like how early we are is everything we're saying is still taboo from anybody with real capital, right? Like anybody sees this move and is like, okay, maybe that's interesting. I want 0.1 or 1 % as a speculative bet in a sector of digital assets, because other things are moving, right? So nobody's coming to this conclusion like, this is the thing and this thing's gonna be worth millions and total addressable market, it's gonna eat X, Y, and Z. They're literally like, because we have these conversations all day long, they're basically looking at, this is very speculative, maybe I'll get 1%. And so you're still so far before they realize, wait, what am I, what am I actually holding and what's happening? And that's kind of like, we're in, this is really credit to you, David, for seeing like what we're doing to the vision. I remember when you reached out early and we had like an hour and a half, just like off the cuff conversation about everything we're building and that like, we're building these products because it's a fundamentally different sector. It's a fundamentally different asset class. And so it has to be treated. fundamentally different. It's not like it's a two, like everybody's building 2D products on Bitcoin. I think of us as building 3D products. Like when you think about custody and delivery and all the things that have to be built that an ETF is like the least sexy thing that exists in the market. It's the thing that got is getting capital in, but it's also full of counterparty risk and things that are wrong. And GBTC was like the thing we first had looked at because that was the before the ETF was the benchmark and you had the 2 % management fee, the lockup. right? The custodial risk with Coinbase and the ETFs are effective at the same thing. They just got blessed by the SEC. And so we're still early innings, but the forward thinking individuals like, and we haven't been too public about it, but I'm sure you saw the pensions that came out leveraging the on-ramp Bitcoin trust. Those are the most sophisticated investors. And the reason they went there is because they're just looking at risk from a first principle perspective and saying, well, wait, what could go wrong with the custodian? Well, 15 years, things have gone wrong. What could go wrong when Michael (54:37.998) a GFC happens, well, nobody's going to make hole on the asset. I want to be able to take delivery, right? Do I want Bitcoin only because they didn't want Bitcoin only because they don't get Bitcoin. They want a Bitcoin only. when the pensions go like when the market when the price is 93 about to be 93,000, when it dips to 67, they're like, go talk to these guys. Like there's another group that will provide you air cover and explaining why it did that. We're not just telling you that. And there's not really any firms that do that. And so Anyway, it's just we're still so early from people recognizing what this can be and that means that there's still so much more capital. Jackson Mikalic (55:10.608) Yeah, that's a critical thing because while we're having these conversations and, you know, we've been around the block for a while and are able to articulate some of the concepts that got us to understand Bitcoin and hopefully that's helpful for people newer to the space. The reality is that David Thayer (55:10.967) completely agree. Jackson Mikalic (55:27.588) Michael, most people are not even at a one percent allocation yet. We at OnRamp, we have the private client side of the business. So those are typically more seasoned Bitcoiners that understand Bitcoin and they're looking for better custody and inheritance is a big gap. But on the institutional side of the business, we're speaking with financial advisors, which is mostly independent RIAs. We're speaking with institutional investors. And I can't tell you how many people I'm reaching out on behalf of the business to endowments and foundations and family offices. And we're getting meetings here and there, but it's still like you get a lot of nos. We don't invest in Bitcoin. We don't we don't look at crypto, right? So there's still this misunderstanding as it relates to institutional allocators where A is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not even different than crypto in their eyes. That's that's one thing. And then I get way more nos on cold outreach than I get yeses, right? Because people still have this inherent skepticism. They lack understanding as it relates to Bitcoin and the investable opportunity. And so we haven't even seen anywhere close to 1 % allocations in the institutional investment community across the board. And then another component to this as well, and Brian and I have chatted about this, I think on the show and offline is that, so we both worked in manager research before. So you're looking at hedge fund managers and private assets like equity, credit, real estate. And so these managers, they get money from their LPs to outperform a benchmark. Right. So Bitcoin hasn't even made its way into indexes yet. So what are the implications of Bitcoin being included in a benchmark? if you're underperforming and if you don't have an allocation to Bitcoin, then perhaps you're underperforming the benchmark. And then you have to explain that to your investors why you don't have an allocation to Bitcoin and why that's leading you to underperform the benchmark. That's a big problem because investors are paying Pretty generous fees to a lot of fund managers and if you can't deliver alpha then what are they paying you for so? Just a side note on how I think about it from the asset management community and then Brian I know you have something to say also want to just I Was just gonna say for people who are on their podcast apps, yeah, we're at 93 K. So that's that's exciting Brian Cubellis (57:40.962) Yeah, it's an important point. Here, go ahead. 93, too. Michael (57:50.947) Thank Brian Cubellis (57:50.96) The index point is fascinating. think no one's really thinking about that. The closest people have gotten to thinking about that is when does micro strategy get in the S &P or the Nasdaq? And it would have a similar dynamic of passive flows heading into Bitcoin or a proxy for Bitcoin. I want to go back though to the point David was making around Bitcoin actually de-risks as it goes up. And I was literally having this conversation with a buddy last night and I was trying to think if there's any other assets that have this quality. I'm fairly certain Bitcoin is the only one and it's unique in the sense that as the price goes up, it's actually more valuable and it's de-risked because the thesis is being validated. so Bitcoin at 93 is more established, more credible. as what we all think it is, than it was at 70 or 50 or 30. And no other asset really has that quality. If you think about equities, that's why I think a lot of people in traditional finance, they get confused when they look at Bitcoin because they're like, looks a little frothy here, might have to trim some exposure at 93. It's like, well, no, like, we're not valuing this on cash flows or, you know, if it was real estate, like rental capacity or anything, the fundamentals are that this is global money. So the more people think it's global money, like the thesis is being validated. So like it's actually more valuable at 93, obviously in terms of like magnitude and market cap, yes it is, but it's like, it's not overvalued. It can never be overvalued because it's, this is how much value people have put into it as global money. So you don't need to think about it as a tech stock that's, you know, over its skis a little bit. And I think that's where a large percentage of TradFi folks are still there. And that's why, to your point, David, they think, I'm a little late on this. It's like, no, it's never been a better time to buy Bitcoin. And that will continue to be the case. David Thayer (59:55.457) well you also mentioned brian earlier that you know as long as you hold four to five years doesn't matter when you buy so just go ahead and take the plunge and tactically speaking you know i'd recommend i think we would all agree but you know it's my personal view that if you are wondering about getting in and how to do it obviously you'd sign up with onramp but beyond that Brian Cubellis (01:00:02.192) Exactly. David Thayer (01:00:20.087) take the plunge and make a meaningful investment and then DCA, dollar cost average, into the position on whatever sort of periodic basis you want. And that's the way I think to do it. And that's oriented toward newer entrants into the space. It's on a risk adjusted basis. It's never been a better time, even at 93 brand. And someday when people are watching this podcast in one, two years from now, 93 K is going to look like a joke. Brian Cubellis (01:00:52.976) Right, right. do you guys think happened? Sorry, Michael, I just wanted to get your guys' thoughts on this. Michael, we've talked about this in the past, but what do you think psychologically, behaviorally happens at 100K? Do you think there's a lot of pent-up sellers at 100K? I almost think it's the opposite. I think there's pent-up demand at 100K because a lot of people that have been sidelined are watching this move and... Michael (01:00:54.29) I had a friend. Brian Cubellis (01:01:21.936) The other part of it too is I think we anchored, for some reason, the community anchored to 100K last cycle and we didn't get there. So now I think a lot of observers and skeptics are like, they were talking 100K four years ago, like this is nothing. Like, they're just now getting to 100K, like they were calling for that four years ago. So I think that's a component. But I think when it does get over 100K, it's like the mental model flips of like, this actually might go to a million. And I don't think people are there yet in terms of thinking like it could go to a million. Michael (01:01:52.084) Yeah. Michael (01:01:56.471) thought that for a while, basically like the Hong and Bitwise take of like 100K is the real IPO for Bitcoin, not the ETF, because now people are not anchoring to a bias of, this can go to zero. It's like, well, where actually can this go? The thing that's fascinating, I thought, and we didn't talk a lot about it. This wasn't like a novel rumor or theory, but the whole FTX debacle and like how much paper Bitcoin was out there. It's like... it probably should have hit 100k. There was a lot of people that thought they had Bitcoin, had zero, that was cell pressure. So to your point, we always have to temper where this goes because it was just 2020, that cycle was just brutal and where people thought and what happened. But yeah, where is it going? Because there's no retail stepping in. There's very, not no, but there's very few. like actual net new people we reference people texting us and calling us and you know, we see some here or there from a net new buyer. but yeah, like, this is this is some some real like, interesting bit and a couple of people looking at each other trying to like, you know, stack as much coin as possible. David Thayer (01:03:06.507) You see too, was so helpful when, in the summer of 2023, it? When, like, Fick made the announcement that BlackRock was going to try and get an ETF approved. Because you just knew that BlackRock had enough heft to influence the decisions to whether or not it would be approved. And then it also gave... TradFi validation to the space and now you have Howard Lutnick at Catter also validating the space. These are meaningful guideposts in TradFi land because you know I know from personal experience and this is not a knock on Wall Street, but it is true. They're kind of looking at each other like well, what are you doing? it's a kind of a medic space and we're just humans you know it's not like as i said it's not their fault or anything that's just a human bias and so they're kind of looking around and i think what we'll see is a gradually then suddenly kind of moment where suddenly it's okay to announce that you're a bitcoin or to wear a hat like this and to you know like announce that you're pro bitcoin by the way on a related note we saw it a little bit with the Trump phenomenon. For those who were Trump supporters in the 16 to 20 period, you almost had to say it in hushed voices. And I get it because he's a controversial character. But more recently, it's been like okay to come out and admit that maybe you are a Trump supporter, in part because he has a much more diverse team now, Tulsi Gabbard and some of these other folks we've already mentioned, which makes it more palatable. And I think it's becoming more palatable for TradFi investors. to accept Bitcoin as a potential space to explore. Jackson Mikalic (01:04:51.562) Yeah, one thought on that. We'd love to hear some takes. So what are the implications then for Bitcoin and traditional finance adoption? know, corporate banking, investment banking, David, mentioned Howard Ludnick and Cantor. They're obviously advocates for Bitcoin and working on Bitcoin strategy internally. BNY Mellon got the exemption earlier this year to provide custody services. So with the SAB 121 repeal that likely happens, What do you guys think? So we're playing in the Bitcoin custody and infrastructure space, financial services, asset management at OnRamp. What might we see next year with BNY and other traditional custodians and banks stepping into Bitcoin? What might that look like? You guys have any thoughts on that? David Thayer (01:05:44.887) Well, I personally think that if things go as we believe they are, and I think the market's also telling us this, given the 25 % rise in the last 10 days or whatever it's been, that it's just going to take a couple of itty bitty steps. The BNY validation, Howard Lutnick having Trump's ear. Etc. Obviously the the flows that are being observed into the ETFs that are just absolutely mind-blowing and unprecedented That you know we we could well see kind of a spike not just in Bitcoin price, but just broader interest That's my main concern. You know be great if you know our net worth went up But it's more just about broader adoption, and it's just a vote to your point Brian as to the value of the network Michael (01:06:25.98) you David Thayer (01:06:36.863) So I'm primarily concerned as I know you guys are with just broader adoption. think we will see that. And then as Wall Street becomes more comfortable with tiptoeing into the space. then that's going to give the green light to other smaller players, the RIAs and so forth to say, yeah, okay, it's only right to do this. And then the benchmarking point that I think Michael, you had brought up becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Like you have to be at Bitcoin to be taken seriously if you're an RIA or whatever it might happen to be. So it's gonna be, I think like real estate or stocks or bonds or anything else, it's just gonna be an asset class which one naturally allocates a portion of one's portfolio. Michael (01:07:24.444) I'm curious because you're the closest to inside OnRim and seeing day to day of what we're doing, also, I don't know if it's apprehension is the right word, but how traditional finance looks at the space and then also have been a private bank. Where do you think? Do you think that the large players that are players today will be meaningful players 10 years from now in Bitcoin or is it too disruptive? Brian Cubellis (01:07:37.36) Mm-hmm. Michael (01:07:52.54) to their existing model that they'll effectively get left behind. And the analogy is not Apple's, Apple's is like Blockbuster and Netflix. Brian Cubellis (01:07:59.32) Yeah, I don't have a singular answer. I think it's very much an open question because to some extent, it's inevitable, right, that like banks will get into the space more deeply and want to custody the assets. But the question is like, they don't have the competency to do so right now. So like, how long does it take them to build that out? Like if you look at, you know, one example of just like Fidelity, which came from the traditional side and was a very early mover into Bitcoin. It took them several years to build first sort of mining focused business and then more on the custody side. took several years. So it's not you can't flip a switch if we get some regulations passed that say, OK, banks, you're good to go. These banks aren't ready to be securing private keys. So like that's the open question is, know, who moves first, who moves quickly and how long does that realistically take? I don't know. I'm assuming it's gonna take longer than most people assume. But I don't know, Michael, do you have thoughts? Michael (01:09:13.908) do. They're very strong. So I'm going to tell me to temper them. But, no, but David, like, I think the thing you'll probably kind of appreciate, it's embedded in this a lot of folks will come and they'll talk to us about their wealth and how we can secure it. And they'll, you know, sometimes ask about different competitors or different places in industry. And I can, I kind of like try to like leapfrog because it's very easy to talk about human capital keys, who the level of key holders infrastructure, but I kind of say it's a philosophical one. Brian Cubellis (01:09:15.888) Let it rip. David Thayer (01:09:16.895) Okay. Michael (01:09:42.963) And it kind of sounds soft. It's like, well, you're dodging the question and it cut, but it kind of ties into what Brian saying is what we just talked about in individuals, barely being able to get off of zero to 1 % of a speculative asset is so fundamentally different than thinking about long-term wealth planning for this asset class when it comes to tax advantage accounts, privately private placement fund, lending against it. and how to do it in a way that you don't get blown up, which you have a team that's done it previously, not saying we're doing that, but just like an understanding deeply of the asset class that takes real battle scars and wounds to like take. And this re underwriting that Brian said is happening, it's going to happen across the spectrum. It's kind of what we talked about at dinner that one night, David, about the early writers. It's like the market's going to reprice businesses, but individually in a reprice or re underwrite their careers. And what effectively happens at these large organizations is they're too slow. And when somebody grocks this stuff and they listen to these pods and they see what we're doing, they reach out they want to join because they're looking at like a dying beast and they're like, well, shit, I cannot do anything here. It's too big. It's too antiquated. It's too bureaucratic. Right. And so then they naturally go. And so that's kind of my take without saying how strongly I feel like where those incumbents will play. And it's not to say everyone, it's just that David Thayer (01:10:48.832) Yeah. Michael (01:10:58.655) The analogy I like to think about is like, if you were trying to build Instagram today, it's not apples to apples, but it's a directional. It's like you're trying to build Instagram today and trying to go up to Rochester and go to Kodak and ask them how to do it. You'd be like, that's nonsensical. It doesn't really make sense. So the only relation is that it's photos and that one and this one, that's it's a financial asset. But then once you start getting underneath the price that shows up on a screen, It's a completely different thing. And if you give it to somebody to Brian's point that doesn't know how to manage it, SMA, private keys, wallets, all the things, redundancies, you're just like hoping to God they don't mess something up. And for 15 years, that's effectively what happens, which goes back to the 2D version of looking at the asset versus the 3D version. And for the first 15 years, there's been a bunch of individuals looking at it in a 2D version. I hold the gold, I hold the Bitcoin, I hold the dollars, right? And it's like, well, wait, this is, there's only 21 million. You need some fault tolerance or redundancy in here. David Thayer (01:11:34.219) Thank Michael (01:11:53.727) you're not really doing it right because you never want to be in a position to lose it. David Thayer (01:11:58.165) Well, you you touched on something that I think might also be worth mentioning, which is that, you know, I get it. lot of incumbent players are conscious of their brand. They've built a great brand. By the way, lot of them, least within the trap-fi space, have benefited handsomely from the existing fiat system. So is there an incentive even to explore an alternative? But let's just say they do, as have BlackRock and Canterfield's Gerald. You know, I think understandably, given that they've built this carefully crafted brand and they have successful products already, do they really want to put it at risk? But this is where others... taking the spheres as they kind lead the charge into the Bitcoin battle come in handy. Because once it's established that, hey, know, Canter and BlackRock have done well with this, others will follow and arguably improve upon what's already been done. So I personally, and of course, I'm in that world myself, I would just say a lot of Bitcoiners fear the infection of TradFi into the space. And we were talking about this a little bit earlier prior to going live. Like, first of all, I think it's inevitable. And secondly, I don't think as a result there's anything we do about it. Thirdly, I don't think it's bad necessarily. We just have to adapt to it as a space. Whether it's government involvement or triad-5 involvement. Let's just embrace it and adapt and go forward. And yeah, it might not be as decentralized as it originally was. And some of the original cyber punks are not seeing the exact version of their thesis play out. But I think it's going to be OK. And I think it's generally good for Bitcoin adoption for the network itself. Michael (01:13:48.44) Yeah, it definitely is. think the angle is where the competency comes from a long term counterparty risk and longevity. to your point, you just made me think about the existing large TradFi players that have come in. They're all like founder, quasi-founder, CEO-led. When you think about BlackRock and Fink and Lutnik or Abby Johnson and Fidelity, and with that, David Thayer (01:14:06.487) It is true. true. It's an excellent point. David Thayer (01:14:12.79) Yeah. Michael (01:14:15.386) person at the helm, can put more credibility because they have more autonomy, where once you get the bureaucracy and like, we'll do it because we got we have to. But now you're just like, you know, tokenizing the world and basket of currencies, like that's what we're seeing. I mean, me and Brian were up in Wyoming for the blockchain symposium. And, you know, God bless, there's a lot of noise and that's going to come into this space. Because to the point, it's like, well, digital assets, it's a sector and we got to get exposure. David Thayer (01:14:43.327) Well, you guys are perfecting the model and you have some peers who have done really well as well. I think what is appealing about your model is exactly what we're describing here. I mean, for those who are not comfortable with the technology and holding their own keys and what have you, they can gain some comfort by essentially outsourcing this. And yet, it's also secure because you have this Jackson Mikalic (01:14:43.432) Yep. David Thayer (01:15:13.722) multi-custodial model and soon to be multi-jurisdictional model. And we've talked about this, Michael, I think I've talked about with all three of you guys, but as a long-time gold holder, for all the reasons we've described before, that's exactly what I've been doing myself. I have a little ETF and I have a little... gold held in other jurisdictions and so on and so forth and just to replicate that model I think is really powerful. It's exactly what I think a lot of institutional players will want to see. Jackson Mikalic (01:15:41.973) Yeah, it's a great point. And I know we'll wrap up here in just a couple of minutes. David, want to acknowledge what you said as well as it relates to ultimately this is all a good thing because if we want Bitcoin to proliferate globally to the degree we want it to, then these solutions need to exist, right? Because just because traditional financial institutions step in and provide Bitcoin custody services or offer ETFs doesn't mean you have to use it. right? So this is still, it's still up to the end user of that Bitcoin how they want to choose to interact with the asset and protocol. Michael (01:16:19.461) Thanks. Jackson Mikalic (01:16:23.084) can't fault people who might just want to have ETF exposure in their Fidelity account, right? Or people who maybe have, maybe an institution has a banking relationship with BNY Mellon and they end up using them for custody of some of their Bitcoin. It doesn't mean that the individual hodler who's been in for two or three cycles now has to do that. You're still free to hold your own keys if you want to, you're free to work with OnRamp if you want to. And that's the beauty of it all. So I think more options are better. Michael (01:16:40.431) Thanks. Jackson Mikalic (01:16:53.108) doesn't, there's no force involved, right? It's all voluntary. So I ultimately think that this is a great thing for the asset class. And I also think that just the success of the ETFs have proven that out as well. I mean, it's been remarkable how successful they have been with the BlackRock ETFs surpassing in assets under management. Their Bitcoin ETF has surpassed the gold ETF in a matter of Michael (01:17:03.973) you Jackson Mikalic (01:17:19.34) 10 months, right? And the Gold ETF has been around for 25 years. So that's just a testament to the insatiable demand for Bitcoin and also the need for easier solutions. Like we're not going to be in a world where I think some of the earlier Bitcoiners thought that we would be where everyone holds their own keys and you have your seed phrase memorized and you fly around on a private jet and you don't interact with any financial institutions. Like maybe some people could do that and if you're great and if you can do that, that's great. But the reality is that for this asset to be widely adopted, Michael (01:17:26.002) Thank Jackson Mikalic (01:17:54.698) these solutions need to exist and you need to meet people where they're at because for the first 14 years without ETFs and Bitcoin's history, the only options were open up a Coinbase account or Binance or now some better exchanges like River and you either leave your Bitcoin on there or you have to take full responsibility. And a lot of people have taken full responsibility and they've kept themselves safe and that's really critical. But now they're realizing when they made that decision maybe three or five years ago, maybe they had a couple hundred thousand dollars of Bitcoin or maybe they had $50,000 of Bitcoin. And now they're looking at a million or maybe more than that. And they're like, well. I'm the only person who knows how to manage this. If I want this to be multi-generational, I need to figure out more redundant and robust solutions, which is ultimately why a lot of the more seasoned Bitcoiners who have, you know, five Bitcoin or 10 or 20 or 50 are working with OnRamp because these realities are setting in where the risk of managing everything yourself is actually increasing over time as the price does. So ultimately, I think it's very important for there to be these Bitcoin native solutions and then also solutions that are more native to traditional finance and may even offer more seamless and easier access, of course, maybe with some additional trade-offs. Michael (01:19:13.393) Yeah, I threw up the chart Jackson, you referenced about the ETF versus gold. David, curious, like back in your day, you know, or maybe even now, like, what do people say to this in the trade in, you know, Blackstone, like, this is just, it's just a wild chart. David Thayer (01:19:32.861) It is. I've heard no scuttlebutt because it doesn't get a lot of, or it has not to date gotten a lot of traction within the firm. However, I have to believe that they're looking hard at this. You we don't have a lot of public equity exposure. have my business unit happens to be in that space, but as you know, it's largely an alternative asset firm. so, you know, it's not. topic of discussion and granted too I'm an executive advisor now so I'm not a partner meeting so I don't know exactly what's what the latest skull blood is but having said that I'll say going forward it's bound to be getting if it hasn't already gobs of attention within the triad high space and you know I've said it before but I mean it's just you know I almost said this earlier, it's like the last several years have been a pretty dark period in American history in my view. And I think a lot of us feel, certainly I do, that for a whole host of reasons, whether it's fiscal prudence at the national level or is this embrace in Bitcoin, there's a little spring in my step more recently. And I think for a whole host of reasons, it's, there's... reason to be hopeful right now, both for us in the space and for us as Americans. Jackson Mikalic (01:21:00.652) Absolutely. Well, David, appreciate you coming on today. Thanks for breaking through 90K with us. I really enjoyed the conversation, thought it was a good one, so hopefully listeners do as well. Is there anywhere you would want to hand off people if they wanted to get in touch with you directly or some of the organizations that you're involved with? Where would you like to point people to? Michael (01:21:00.685) agreed. Brian Cubellis (01:21:01.444) Very well said. David Thayer (01:21:10.935) you David Thayer (01:21:27.329) Sure, well, I'm on LinkedIn, so feel free to reach out there. But I would encourage people to, and thanks for offering up that opportunity, to look into, we've mentioned Human Rights Foundation, Students for Liberty is doing great work on college campuses. The Atlas Network, which is an aggregation of freedom friendly organizations around the world, is also worth exploring. They're having a big dinner, big event, as they do on an annual basis next week in New York. And then a final organization with which I'm pretty heavily involved is called the Global Liberty Institute. And what GLI is seeking to do is essentially recreating the world economic forum, but instead of for tyranny, for freedom. And so that may be overstating the case. I'm sure the WEF over the years has done some good work. But nonetheless, right now it's kind of evolved into something that I think a lot of people find objectionable. And so it's... It's for lack of a better term, of grooming young emergent leaders and helping them get networked into positions of authority so that they can be down the road advocates for freedom. So anyway, we're all freedom friendly on this call and I suspect everybody watching this podcast is too. So, you know, I've maybe just asked that you look into those organizations, especially as Bitcoin does well. And as earlier mentioned, we look to do some good. Michael (01:22:53.271) Yeah, we got to get them holding, holding some Bitcoin. yeah. David Thayer (01:22:56.437) I Absolutely. And I know just where to go. So I'll make the necessary intros. Brian Cubellis (01:23:00.803) You Michael (01:23:01.324) Hahaha! Jackson Mikalic (01:23:04.254) Well, thanks David. Appreciate you coming on today. Again, all time highs, fun rip with you and thanks for all the great work that you're doing, not only in the Bitcoin space, but more broadly as it relates to just human rights and liberty globally. These are fantastic organizations, so just commend you and your involvement. So thanks for that. David Thayer (01:23:22.315) Thank you guys and I salute where you're going too. Michael (01:23:23.341) Thanks for joining.