The Real Asset Supercycle Can Begin
July 23, 2026
Onramp's The Last Trade podcast examines the Clarity Act's pending Senate vote, a 30-year Treasury yield holding above 5% for the longest stretch since 2007, and the hosts' argument that gold and bitcoin are in the early stage of a real asset supercycle.
The crew opens on the Clarity Act heading for a Senate vote as soon as next week, where Republicans need seven Democrats and a Trump-focused ethics package (a token ban, blind trusts, DOJ enforcement) has become the sticking point. Michael still leans toward passage while Brian admits he has flip-flopped a thousand times. They walk through the macro backdrop: the Strait of Hormuz still constrained, refinery sites hit, OPEC fracturing after the UAE's exit, and a 30-year Treasury yield above 5% for 27 sessions, the most since 2007, against roughly $40 trillion of federal debt. Jackson anchors the discussion on Incrementum's In Gold We Trust chart, where 1938, 1971, 1995, and 2020 each marked a real-asset low, with the US now 4% of population but 65% of global market cap. Brian and Michael argue Bitcoin near $66K is a fraction of gold's $30 trillion and equities' $75 trillion, so the repricing has barely started. They close on the US-China AI race, model distillation and export controls, wrench attacks now averaging over $100M, and another treasury company selling its Bitcoin at the bottom.
Chapters
00:00 - Intro: Market and geopolitical overview 00:08 - Market opening and initial comments 00:25 - Discussion on Iran, OPEC, and global oil markets 00:52 - Geopolitical implications for macroeconomics and Bitcoin 01:18 - US crypto legislation and Senate vote update 02:34 - Details of the ethics package and regulatory hurdles 03:36 - Political dynamics around Trump and crypto legislation 05:12 - Market sentiment and political influences on crypto 06:48 - Market structure, global adoption, and geopolitical risks 08:20 - Global regulatory landscape and US competitiveness 09:58 - Long-term macro trends and real asset cycles 12:17 - US Treasury yields, bond market signals, and interest rates 15:37 - Impact of Middle East conflict on energy and inflation 17:59 - Market reactions to geopolitical tensions 20:03 - US debt, fiscal policy, and bond yields 22:38 - Geopolitical shifts and oil market dynamics 25:17 - Real assets vs. financial assets long-term trends 28:33 - Market cycles, gold, Bitcoin, and inflation 32:58 - Long-term asset revaluation and market signals 37:36 - AI race: US vs. China and technological dominance 44:17 - AI advancements, model distillation, and geopolitical implications 50:33 - Market breakdowns, private credit, and consumer trends 53:29 - Closing thoughts and market outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
What does The Last Trade say about the Clarity Act's Senate vote?
The hosts discuss the Clarity Act heading for a Senate vote, noting Republicans need seven Democratic votes and that a Trump-focused ethics package has become the main sticking point (01:18-03:36).
How does the In Gold We Trust report factor into the real asset supercycle argument on this episode?
Jackson walks through Incrementum's In Gold We Trust chart, pointing to 1938, 1971, 1995, and 2020 as prior real-asset lows, and argues the US's outsized share of global market cap versus population sets up another cycle (25:17-32:58).
What does the episode say about Treasury yields and US debt?
The hosts note the 30-year Treasury yield has held above 5% for 27 sessions, the longest stretch since 2007, against roughly $40 trillion in federal debt (12:17-20:03).
Does this episode of The Last Trade discuss the US-China AI race?
Yes. The hosts close the episode on the US-China AI race, covering model distillation and export controls alongside rising wrench-attack losses in bitcoin (37:36-44:17).
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.