AI Researcher Puts Doomsday Odds at 10%
September 11, 2026
On this episode of Signal vs. Noise, produced by Onramp Media, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis weigh an ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher's warning that AI carries a 10% chance of ending humanity against Donald Trump's pledge of $5,000 to every American if Republicans hold the midterms. They also cover the 10-year Treasury yield nearing a 19-year high as the Treasury triples its bond buybacks.
An ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher says there is over a 10% chance AI ends humanity within the decade, and his warning has already pulled in 150 million impressions online. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Donald Trump promising $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans hold the midterms, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying nothing else matters if China wins the AI race, the 10-year Treasury yield near a 19-year high as the Treasury triples its bond buybacks, and a lightning round on OpenAI's contested 10,000-agent math proof. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?
Chapters
00:00 - Intro 01:08 - Topic 1 - Trump Promises $5,000 to Every American If the GOP Wins 07:13 - Topic 2 - An AI Researcher Says There's a 10% Chance AI Ends Humanity 23:25 - Topic 4 - The Bond Market's Yield Crisis and the Treasury's Buyback Escalation 29:24 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the AI researcher warn about on Signal vs. Noise?
At 07:13, the hosts discuss an ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher's claim that there is over a 10% chance AI ends humanity within the decade, a warning that has already drawn 150 million impressions online.
What did Trump promise ahead of the midterms?
At 01:08, the hosts break down Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans hold the midterms.
Why is the 10-year Treasury yield near a 19-year high?
At 23:25, the hosts cover the 10-year Treasury yield approaching its highest level in 19 years as the Treasury triples the size of its bond buyback program.
What did Bessent say about the AI race with China?
Around the 13:30 mark, the hosts discuss Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comment that nothing else matters if China wins the AI race, framing the stakes of the global AI competition.
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