Bitcoin's Five-Year Stall and the 2017 Comparison
November 12, 2026
In this episode of The Last Trade from Onramp Media, Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma and Brian Cubellis discuss why bitcoin is near where it was five years ago and how Brian compares that stretch to the flat years after the 2017 top. They also cover the AI trade, security risks for holders and Macroscope's big print thesis.
Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma and Brian Cubellis take on this week's complaint that bitcoin has gone nowhere in five years, with Brian comparing it to the flat stretch after the 2017 top. The hosts discuss business custody, dollar-cost averaging through a drawdown, the Jensen Huang news and Nvidia's weight in the market, and Anthropic's IPO as a test for the AI trade. Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier's public comments on hacks lead into a discussion of single points of failure for long-term holders. The hosts walk through Macroscope's 'big print' thesis, which Brian compares to the COVID period, and close on Charlie Bilello's data showing bitcoin and gold down together in 2026, Coinbase's federal trust charter and BlackRock's in-kind conversions.
Chapters
00:00 - Bitcoin in the $70,000s and the five-year complaint 03:53 - Bitcoin Custody for Businesses 07:20 - The Hosts On Dollar-Cost Averaging 08:53 - The Hosts On the Jensen Huang News and Nvidia 14:49 - Binance, Nvidia and the machine 18:05 - Anthropic's IPO and the AI trade 20:00 - The Hosts On the 'Big Print' Thesis 22:21 - Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier's Comments on Hacks 28:16 - KYC data and the next attack surface 29:52 - Single Points of Failure for Long-Term Holders 34:29 - Macroscope's Big Print Thesis 38:10 - GPUs, fiat and when money dies 41:43 - Lawrence Lepard and the pain of holding 46:17 - The Hosts On the Five-Year Comparison 49:18 - Listener Questions and Binance's iOS Warning 55:26 - Quick hits: Coinbase's charter and BlackRock in-kind 56:20 - Charlie Bilello's Data on Bitcoin and Gold in 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Brian Cubellis compare bitcoin's five-year stretch to 2017?
Brian opens (00:00) on the complaint that bitcoin has made no gains in five years and walks through the 2017 top and the flat years that followed, then returns to why he sees the five-year window as a selective comparison (46:17). This is the show's framing, not investment advice from Onramp.
What is Macroscope's big print thesis discussed on the show?
The hosts discuss the thesis (20:00, 34:29) that inflation protection tends to be priced cheaply before large-scale money printing begins, and Brian points to the COVID period as the most recent example. This is the show's framing, not investment advice from Onramp.
What did the hosts discuss about Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier's comments?
Starting at 22:21, the hosts react to Pascal Gauthier's public comments about hacks, then discuss KYC data as an attack surface (28:16) and how long-term holders think about single points of failure (29:52).
What data on bitcoin and gold does the episode cover?
The episode closes (56:20) on Charlie Bilello's data showing bitcoin and gold both down in 2026, a first in his dataset, after quick hits (55:26) on Coinbase's federal trust charter and BlackRock's in-kind conversions.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.