Don't Believe Your Lying Eyes
August 21, 2026
On this episode of Signal vs. Noise, produced by Onramp Media, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson weigh the Treasury's failed attempt to cap bond yields against OpenAI reportedly pausing frontier-model training as Alibaba's Qwen closes the gap, Moderna and Merck's cancer-vaccine trial win, and New York City's plan to help grocers compete with Mayor Mamdani's proposed government-run stores.
The Treasury just told markets not to trust their own eyes. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson put four stories on the clock. They break down the US Treasury more than doubling its bond buyback program, from a $2 billion cap to a $4 billion floor, in an attempt to cap bond yields, only for 30-year yields to erase the intervention and climb back toward multi-decade highs within 24 hours, right after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yields "do not reflect the underlying fundamentals." OpenAI has reportedly paused a round of frontier-model post-training over safety concerns, just as Alibaba's open-source Qwen model closes the gap on the frontier labs while running on a laptop. Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine cleared a major late-stage trial milestone, sending both stocks sharply higher. And New York City is weighing grants for local grocers to help them compete with Mayor Mamdani's government-run grocery stores. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?
Chapters
00:53 - Topic 1 - Treasury Doubles the Bond Buyback as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs 06:28 - Topic 2 - OpenAI Pauses Training as Qwen Goes Toe to Toe With the Frontier 10:55 - Topic 3 - Moderna and Merck's Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough 16:40 - Topic 4 - Mamdani's Government-Run Grocery Stores 23:42 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Treasury's bond buyback fail to cap yields?
At 00:53, the hosts explain the Treasury more than doubled its bond buyback program, from a $2 billion cap to a $4 billion floor, to hold down yields — only for 30-year Treasury yields to erase the intervention and climb back toward multi-decade highs within 24 hours.
What does OpenAI pausing training say about the AI race?
Starting at 06:28, the hosts discuss reports that OpenAI paused a round of frontier-model post-training over safety concerns just as Alibaba's open-source Qwen model closes the gap on the frontier labs while running on a laptop.
What did Moderna and Merck announce about their cancer vaccine?
At 10:55, the hosts cover Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine clearing a major late-stage trial milestone, sending both stocks sharply higher.
How is New York City responding to Mayor Mamdani's government-run grocery stores?
At 16:40, the hosts break down New York City weighing grants for local grocers to help them compete with Mayor Mamdani's proposed government-run grocery stores.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.