JPMorgan's Bitcoin Forecast and the Week in Macro
October 22, 2026
In this episode of The Last Trade, a show from Onramp Media, the hosts discuss JPMorgan's first bitcoin figure in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, about 10% a year over a decade. Onramp Media's hosts attribute their views to themselves and the episode is not investment advice from Onramp.
Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma and Brian Cubellis discuss JPMorgan's 31st Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which projects about 10% a year for bitcoin over the next decade versus 7.5% for US large caps and 5.5% for gold. Brian argues that figure is conservative, pointing to bitcoin's history in 10-year windows. The hosts also cover Schwab's bitcoin trading rollout, Germany's Sparkassen, Switzerland's first retail spot bitcoin ETF, a USAA outage, the OCC's final GENIUS Act rule, France's tax on crypto-to-stablecoin swaps and an IMF paper on financial repression. They close on reported figures about CoreWeave bonds and off-balance-sheet AI debt.
Chapters
00:00 - Welcome and Opening Themes 04:32 - JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin 06:16 - Brian on Bitcoin's Historical 10-Year Returns 10:15 - The Hosts On Wall Street's Changing Tone 15:09 - Brian's Case on Bitcoin Volatility 18:07 - Schwab's Bitcoin Trading Rollout 21:17 - The Hosts On Large Firms and Bitcoin 25:04 - Sparkassen and Switzerland's first retail Bitcoin ETF 26:31 - The Week's Outage Discussion: USAA 29:38 - Ledger News, the GENIUS Act Rule and France's Swap Tax 34:24 - Stablecoins near $1 trillion a quarter 38:00 - The IMF on financial repression and Trump accounts 42:11 - The Hosts On Trade Flows and Bitcoin 51:50 - The Hosts On CoreWeave Bonds and AI Debt Figures 1:01:17 - The Hosts On Pressure Points in Markets 1:10:33 - The Hosts' Closing Case on Bitcoin
Frequently Asked Questions
What does JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions say about bitcoin?
As discussed from 04:32, the hosts describe JPMorgan's 31st assumptions as projecting about 10% a year for bitcoin over a decade, against 7.5% for US large caps and 5.5% for gold. This is the show's framing, not investment advice from Onramp.
What did the hosts say about Schwab and bitcoin?
Around 18:07 the hosts discuss Schwab finishing its rollout of bitcoin trading to clients, then talk about how other large financial firms are approaching bitcoin from 21:17.
Which regulatory and tax stories does the episode cover?
From 29:38 the hosts cover the OCC's final GENIUS Act rule and France's 31% tax on crypto-to-stablecoin swaps, and at 38:00 they discuss an IMF paper on financial repression.
What European bitcoin developments are discussed?
At 25:04 the hosts discuss Germany's Sparkassen opening bitcoin to savers and Switzerland approving its first spot bitcoin ETF for retail investors, as reported in the episode.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.