The Bitcoin Catalyst Wall Street Isn't Pricing In
July 21, 2026
In this Final Settlement episode — presented collaboratively by Early Riders and Onramp Media — Michael, Liam, and Brian discuss the bitcoin catalyst they argue Wall Street isn't yet pricing in. The hosts also break down the AI frontier-model race, IPO and capital-markets activity, new stablecoin platforms, and the week's digital asset headlines.
This week Michael, Liam, and Brian break down Moonshot's Kimmy K3 release and what a more open, cheaper Chinese frontier model means for the race against Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6, from cyber guardrails and export controls to the Trump administration weighing a ban on Chinese models. They dig into the AI capital markets: Anthropic and DeepSeek's IPO plans, Nous Research's $75 million raise at a $1.5 billion valuation, Gavin Baker's intelligence-per-dollar thesis, Liquid AI, and OpenShip's self-hostable app platform. The guys run through the payments story: the $53 billion Stripe, Advent, and Block bid for PayPal, Visa's new OUSD stablecoin platform, and Amazon Japan's move into a yen-backed stablecoin. They cover a stack of digital asset headlines: IBIT options limits rising to 1 million contracts, Citadel's $400 million investment in Crypto.com at a $20 billion valuation, the ECB's digital euro pilot, Velocity's $38 million Series A, Tether's Genius Act countdown, and Lynn Alden's new bitcoin-focused PE firm. They close on where the Clarity Act stands, Early Riders' mid-year letter, and AI's arrival in film and music.
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction and Weekly Recap 01:26 - Kimmy K3 Release and Open Source AI Models 05:43 - Meta-level Analysis of AI Race and AGI 08:04 - AI Development: Capabilities and Guardrails 09:44 - AI as a Commodity and Data Strategies 11:08 - Global AI Race and Export Controls 13:13 - US-China AI Power Dynamics 16:46 - US Regulatory Posturing and Competition 21:55 - US and Chinese AI Model Competition 24:58 - AI Infrastructure and Market Share Shifts 31:40 - AI and Financial Markets: IPOs and Capital Flows 36:29 - Open Source AI Projects and Sovereignty 37:16 - Fintech and Payments: Stripe, PayPal, and Crypto 49:05 - Digital Asset Headlines: Tether, Stablecoins, and Regulation 52:58 - Crypto Market Dynamics and Capital Flows 55:25 - Bitcoin and Digital Asset Strategies 01:00:16 - AI and Bitcoin: The Future of Capital and Innovation 01:12:50 - Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 'bitcoin catalyst Wall Street isn't pricing in'?
The hosts frame it as a structural shift they believe markets are underweighting; they lay out the argument across the episode and its 'AI and Bitcoin: The Future of Capital and Innovation' segment around the 1:00:16 mark.
What AI developments does the episode cover?
Michael, Liam, and Brian break down Moonshot's Kimmy K3 open model versus Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6, export controls, and the AI capital markets — including Anthropic and DeepSeek IPO plans — from roughly 01:26 through 36:29.
What payments and stablecoin news is discussed?
Starting around 37:16, the hosts run through the $53 billion Stripe, Advent, and Block bid for PayPal, Visa's new OUSD stablecoin platform, and Amazon Japan's move into a yen-backed stablecoin.
Which digital asset headlines does Final Settlement highlight?
From about 49:05, they cover IBIT options limits rising to 1 million contracts, Citadel's $400 million investment in Crypto.com, the ECB's digital euro pilot, and Tether's Genius Act countdown.
This episode is editorial and educational content. Onramp does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.